The Islamic Courts and the Mogadishu Miracle: What Comes Next for Somalia?

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This assembly acts as a vehicle for setting broad policy ideas while the executive committee is the implementation arm of the new organization. Although the UICs claim that these two units deal with matters internal to their association, it is apparent that they represent the victors and consequently have an agenda much broader than matters particular to the organization. Despite the fact that the population gave critical support to the courts during the war, the organization alone determines the way forward for the region. For example, the organization selected the team that was to negotiate with the TFG in Khartoum which included several people who are not members of the associations. This act of inclusion is symbolic of the willingness of the Courts, so far, to involve other citizens in dealing with the affairs of the city, region, and the nation.

The cautiously slow pace of the Courts to engage other segments of society in setting up an arrangement for governing the city and the region has been troubling to some actors. There seems to be some merit in these complaints as there are no formalized channels of cooperation between the different actors. However, the critics fail to be self reflective as there exists neither a business community nor an inclusive civil society organization with a coherent and serious civic agenda that can provide a basis for cooperation. The dearth of organized civics was in part due to the threat of warlords’ violence against broad based community associations. Mogadishu’s warlords-free environment has created an opportunity for such associations to develop and those who complain about not being invited by the courts in their deliberations and decision-making should not only get organized but also focus on dealing with some of the challenging social problems such as cleaning the city’s refuse that has been accumulating for the past 17 years. Engaging in these actions can be an excellent confidence building measure between the diverse individuals that nominally form the business and civil society groups. Such efforts are critical to generating trust, between groups, which is an essential ingredient for building community. Until members of such ostensible communities invest labor and other resources in these endeavors they will remain guests of those who have made the sacrifices to challenge the merchants of violence.

The UICs and their associates have won the battle against the warlords in Mogadishu and several other regions, however, serious challenges remain that will dwarf past encounters. The foremost of these trials are: a) how to mobilize a fragmented society into an inclusive movement that would defend and rebuild the city, the region, and the country; b) how to keep at bay Ethiopian aggression and its Somali clients including the most senior TFG leaders, and Western powers who see terrorism in anything Islamic.

Mobilizing the population for reconstruction is not going to be easy, but the public’s confidence in the Islamic faith is a major asset that should be strategically deployed to facilitate this effort. One of the first tasks in this regard is the transformation of identity basis of the courts. Initially, the courts were started on the basis of clan identity despite the fact that they all dispensed Islamic justices. Such sectarian identity orientation was necessitated by the absence of viable civic / political association in the midst of a violent civil war. However, the risk imposed by the terrorist warlords’ bounty hunting induced an environment in which common Islamic faith brought people together. Once the warlords were defeated, more clan-based courts have been created in new areas to secure the peace. Now, the challenge is how to transform the clan based identity of the courts to neighborhood and faith centered operations. Attempts are being made to link Islam to common citizenship in order to surmount the divisive exploitation of genealogical identity and some progress has been made, but overcoming clanist fragmentation is a wicked long term project. Transcending genealogical cleavages must go hand in hand with sustained peace, a commitment to justice, and establishing an honest and transparent management of the people’s business. To initiate this sojourn on a sound basis will require an urgent appeal to Somalis skilled in city administration, public management and development to offer their advice and services. There has been some discussion about setting up an autonomous organization that will manage this task. Such a development will have two advantages. It will demonstrate that the UICs are very serious about leading an inclusive movement, and that professionals will have the needed autonomy to initiate programs that serve the public. A move in this direction will be the clearest manifestation of the UICs intention to establish an inclusive and accountable national order.

Meandering around Ethiopia’s political and military machinations and the cruel traps of the war on terror will require clear thought and committed leadership. President Bush’s first remarks about Somalia when it became clear that the Islamic Courts drove the warlords out of the city indicated his concern that the country might become a bastion of Islamic radicals. The rhetoric has since cooled down a bit although key segments of the administration have endorsed the Ethiopian agenda of arming a feeble and illegitimate transitional government and sending foreign troops to protect it if necessary. The Associated Press reported the Ethiopian Information Minister, Berhance Hailu saying that "Ethiopia is prepared to invade neighboring Somalia to defend the country’s internationally recognized government against what appeared to be an imminent attack by an Islamic militia… We have the responsibility to defend the border and the Somali government. We will crush them." Interestingly, neither Ethiopia nor its allies came to rescue the Somali population from the terror of the warlords. Instead, they armed the merchants of violence and continue to harbor some of the defeated warlords contrary to IGAD’s declared commitment not give refuge to these elements. Further, the Ethiopian threat has become a reality as nearly 7000 of its troops have deeply penetrated Somalia and have taken over the TFG’s headquarters and is arming defeated warlords along its border. The regime in Addis Ababa’s claim of the threat of the Islamic Courts, not withstanding, the purpose of this incursion is to destabilize the peace brought about by the triumph of the UICs and undermine the possibility of re-emergent Somalia that is united and independent. Given this context, the best defense against such ill-will is to galvanize the population in order for them to defend their new freedoms, and eschew from being preoccupied with petty and personal affairs that will alienate the population and create opportunities for those who want to demonize Islamic based movements and undercut Somali independence. The heart of this strategy should a generous interpretation of the Islamic faith in combination with traditional Somali independence and self-reliance.

Another challenge facing the UICs and their associates is how to deal with the so-called Transitional Federal Government. The Ethiopian invasion and occupation of Baidoa has dealt a fatal blow to the TFG’s hope of gaining legitimacy with the Somali people. Even some of its supporters in parliament have declared that the TFG is an Ethiopian Trojan horse. It would seem that the only way which the TFG can gain any level of legitimacy with the population is if the Khartoum conference is reconvened and leads to the amalgamation of the UICs and the TFG. However, such a fusion is unlikely given the TFG leaders’ commitment to ally itself with Ethiopia and the Tigray regime’s intent to preemptively foil the conference as it has done with many other Somali conventions. As unworkable as such a merger might seem, the most feasible (and peaceful) way forward might be a compromise between the two entities.

1 - The TFG and UICs fail to strike a compromise (in the absence of a concerted effort by the international community) and for each to maintain areas under its control, leaving the country Balkanized. This situation will not be sustainable for a long time and will most likely lead to a confrontation;

2 - The worst scenario seems to be already unfolding as the Ethiopian government has admitted that its troops are in Somalia (when the TFG is still denying it). Ethiopian authorities aver that they have moved into Somalia in order to preempt dangers to its national security as Eritrea with its renegade allies, such as Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), are poised to attack the country with the support of the UICs. This is an attempt by the regime to justify widening the conflict in order to shore up support for its Somali clients and undercut the popularly supported UICs. These Ethiopian actions have virtually killed the Khartoum negotiations and the UICs delegation came to Sudan for the second phase of the conference but left Khartoum for Mogadishu after waiting for the TFG team for two weeks in July. The UICs has asked the Somali population to be prepared to wage war against invaders and their Somali supplicants. If such misfortune transpires it could spell the beginning of a regional civil. The Ethiopian forces and the TFG might be able to prevail in a conventional war and possibly capture the capital but the moral high ground will belong to the UICs. This will mean that the TFG will not be able to rule the country with any legitimacy. Such a confrontation will turn into a war of resistance inspired by Islamism and nationalism and that will undercut the reign of the TFG and could ultimately lead to the triumph of a more radical UICs agenda than is presently on the cards. This war will not likely be limited to Somalia but will engulf Ethiopia from within.

3 - An agreement is reached in the re-scheduled Khartoum conference between the parties and a government of national unity is formed. Such a development is only feasible if the USA and EU constrain Ethiopian influences over the TFG and the two parties are strongly encouraged to enter the negotiation in good faith. If a genuine rapprochement develops it will pave the way for a thoroughly transformed TFG to move to Mogadishu and focus its attention on reconstruction. A peaceful re-establishment of government institutions and operations in the capital will produce a peace dividend – that is resources that would have been wasted on deploying foreign peacekeepers will instead be invested in reconstruction. Unfortunately, this possibility is being foreclosed as Ethiopian troops have made further inroads into the northeast of the country and as its Foreign Minister dictated to the TFG to reshuffle its cabinet. These last acts have simply demonstrated beyond any shadow of doubt that the TFG is nothing more than an Ethiopian front and thus not worthy of serious engagement. Despite all these currents, let us hope that the TFG delegation led by the Speaker of parliament and the UICs team from Mogadishu will rise to the challenge and strike a progressive compromise that will restore peace and Somalia’s autonomy.

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