Hiiraan Online

Similar opportunistic alliances are also common at the clan level. Many smaller clans have allied with Al-Shabab, seeking protection from the intrusion of state government authority. In both cases, this opportunistic alliance has significant and lasting implications for the nation's political sovereignty and stability.

The growing war drums between Sufism and the so-called "Wahabasim" is another imminent risk. Deeply rooted in a historical and theological difference over religious doctrine, each group claims to possess the correct interpretation of Islam and frames the others as "infidels." Historically, both sides engaged in ferocious wars across the Muslim world. Religious groups also join opportunistic coalitions to reach their political ambition, religious influence and social control. The religious divide is more than a mere difference in belief systems. It embodies a more profound ideological and power struggle and has implications for peace and the nation's stability.

Unlike Somaliland and Puntland, Southern States, including Galmudug, were established by the Federal Government under the transitional constitution of 2012. Their formation was mainly guided by the constitutional requirement of at least two regions. The intent was to avoid tribal dominance and promote regional integration and stability at the local level. However, the formation process has not been without controversy due to historical animosity and tensions between tribes and sub-tribes within the states.

For over ten years, the state government failed to create an effective administrative apparatus with clear, uniform rules, procedures, and governance structure. Puntland stands out as the only state with a functional state government and associated local and regional administrations across the state. Puntland's case is exceptional due to the homogenous clan structure, predominantly the "Harti clan." This has contributed to a more unified sense of identity and collective purpose. Historically, Puntland has managed to avoid severe internal conflicts at the sub-clan level. The homogenous clan structure enabled Puntland to establish a functioning government and maintain law and order. The state governance model may work in Puntland but not in the southern and central regions.

Emerging Al-Assabiya (Hegemonic) State Governments

Somalia's new political system was created to address historical issues of tribal domination by promoting more inclusive governance structures. State Governments were envisioned as power decentralization and bringing governance closer to local communities. The new political system seeks to ensure that no single tribe gains disproportionate control of Somalia's political affairs while fostering greater representation, empowering local communities, and helping build trust in the governance system.

Despite the good intentions of the new political system, the state governments are increasingly becoming "hegemonic" entities dominated by specific tribes and sometimes acting as "mini-countries," seeking alliances from foreign countries instead of collaborating with the Federal Government. The term hegemonic (dominant power) was originally coined by Antonio Gramsci, an Italian political philosopher and refers to the political dominance of one group (tribe) over others. This dominance can result from historical context or deliberately through political process. In Somalia, state-based hegemony is the product of a political process of creating state governments, building tribal-based armed forces, taxation and expropriation of land and resources power, convened to the dominant tribe, while other tribes, "Subalterns" are becoming more marginalized and increasingly opting out from the state government union. These subaltern tribes often seek an alliance with Al-Shabab to help them defend themselves from the invading so-called state troops.

Analysis

This article reflects on the challenges and imminent risks facing the state government, focusing mainly on central and southern state governments. Somaliland and Puntland states, although created in different contexts with varying motivations, share a strikingly similar set of challenges with the southern states, including contested political leadership, one dominant tribe, corruption and nepotism, rampant unemployment and poverty,  widespread discontent and grievances of smaller clans. These recurring issues highlight a deeper, underlying reality of the country's political fragility and growing injustices.  Regardless of their affiliations or ambitions, Somali politicians are rooted in the same historical and cultural framework, shaped by similar moral and ethical principles. This common foundation and "genetic trait" has perpetuated a cycle of dysfunction, injustice, corruption, and instability across the country.

The southern states present a much more complex and diverse clan landscape dynamics. The diversity of clans and the historical context of inter-clan conflicts play a significant role in shaping the governance and stability in these areas. The multiple major clans and numerous sub-clans coexisted, each with their own territorial claims, historical conflicts and political ambitions. There is no unified purpose or sense of identity to collectively build a functioning state-level government. The state governments are becoming a political foundation to reinforce clan-based power structures and the marginalization of subaltern clans. The state governments have built military and security forces that are primarily loyal to the dominant clan in the region. The presence of heavily armed security forces loyal to the dominant clan creates an environment of fear and intimidation for smaller sub-clans. Indeed, they fear that these forces will be used against them in disputes over land, resources, taxation, and political control.

As a contra-measure, smaller clans have built an opportunistic alliance with Al-Shabab for protection. They prefer Al-Shabab rule over the invasion of historical enemies. This opportunistic alliance is dynamic and evolves as needed. For example, Jowhar, Kismayo and Baydao were once a strong base for Al-Shabab. Once the state governments built their own security forces, Al-Shabab moved into areas of subaltern communities, where they were more likely accepted and tolerated for their presence. State security forces are perceived as tools of clan-based dominance rather than an inclusive protector of all citizens. Trust in state governments has been questionable since its inception and has now been eroded. The current conflicts between hegemonic (rulers) and subaltern (ruled) tribes are widespread across the political landscape of the country, including Hirshabelle vs Hiiran region, Jubaland vs Gedo, Southwest vs Lower Shabelle, Galmudug vs Cabudwaaq region, and southern Galgaduud regions; and Somaliland versus Khatumo region.

The potential removal of Al-Shabab could create a vacuum, which could trigger a scramble for control over key resources, territories, and political influence. There is a risk that tribes will rearm themselves to protect their interests. There is also a risk of external meddling, supporting and backing different clans for their strategic interests, further fueling conflicts.

Alternative Political Model

This article proposes a "Regional-Governance System." The article highlights the advantages and appropriateness of regionalism within the context of Somalia. Indeed, further detailed discussions are required to explore the applicability of this model. A regionalism governance system refers to a political and administrative framework where power and authority are decentralized to regions, districts and communal levels. It also refers to the distinctive local character of a geographic area or people's perception of and identification with such places. However, regionalism does not have the same level of independence as states in a federal system. However, regionalism can indeed be seen as an inward approach to governance. It focuses on prioritizing regional interests, including economic development, social cohesion, security and stability, as well as the protection of the land and the environment.

Here are the key advantages of regionalism in Somalia context:

1. Regionalism represents a pragmatic approach to building consensus and collaboration with diverse political and social interest clans and sub-clans in a defined geographic area.
2. There is a strong sense of identity and belonging to the region. Often, people identify themselves to a region or locality; even if they were not born there, they still maintain it as a place of their ancestry.
3. Diverse clans and sub-clans have coexisted in regions and developed historical social cohesion, sharing resources, conflict resolution mechanisms, and a strong sense of ownership of local resources.

Conclusion

Somalia's Federal system is on the verge of collapse due to mounting challenges: conflicts between the federal and state governments, Al-Shabab insurgence, tribal conflicts, external meddling, rampant corruption, unemployment, and lack of safety and security. This article has demonstrated that the federal-state governance system is the fundamental problem. Both the federal and state governments are losing legitimacy and credibility with the Somali people and the international community. In addition, state governments are increasingly seeking opportunistic alliances with neighboring countries, thus undermining the country's sovereignty. At the local level, state governments are seen as tribal-centred power domination, and some regions opted out of the state governments, while others are maintaining an alliance with Al-Shabab for protection. Because of fear, tribes nationwide are rearming to defend their interests and territories. This can reignite or escalate violence, chaos, and breakdown of social cohesion. When tribes rearm, they often undermine the state-government authority by creating a parallel power structure loyal to specific clans.

Regionalism has been part of Somalia's political system since colonial times. There is a sense of identity and belonging to specific geographic regions and localities. In addition, it is a practical approach that allows for localized decision-making, economic development, resource management, local accountability, and social cohesion. At the same time, the central government focuses on building unity and ensuring security. The tribes within each region have coexisted peacefully for generations, and conflict management mechanisms are in place.

The United Nations and the Western nations have a duty of care and responsibility towards the people of Somalia, especially when engaging in military support and capacity-building efforts. It is crucial that the provision of training and funding to state-aligned troops should be approached with due diligence. Evidence shows that the state government has used military units trained and funded by the UN and the International community to suppress opposing tribes and invade the territories of other tribes. Cases of human rights violations and abuses by state-military (hegemonic tribe) has been documented by the Somalia social media. The UN and the International community may unknowingly contribute to empowering certain tribes over others. They should be aware of the genocide risk within the Somali tribes.

Abdi Siyad Omar,  Dr. of Architecture from Italy, and Master of Science from University of Guelph, in Canada.  Abdi specializes in Rural and Urban Development.  Currently, the founder and president of Somalia Rural Development Center.