Tuesday September 24, 2024
By Sadik Warfa
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud pictured with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (top) and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (bottom) during diplomatic engagements.
"Peace is not merely the absence of war. It is a state of mutual respect between nations, where sovereignty and territorial integrity are preserved." These words by the 35th U.S. President John F. Kennedy are often viewed as the backbone of many international relations, and nations should embrace them. However, Ethiopia's assertive actions towards Somalia seem to test these words. The Attempt by Ethiopia to annex a strategic Somali port is more than an economic maneuver but a direct challenge to Somalia's sovereignty and a potential spark for wider regional instability.
Somalia has shown how resilient and unified it is in the face of external threats, as seen in the early 20th century during its resistance against colonial powers. This period was marked by figures such as Sayyid Mohamed Abdulle Hassan, who highlighted the Somali people's determination to preserve their land and sovereignty. However, the current tension between Ethiopia and Somalia threatens to unravel the delicate balance of power witnessed in this region.
The tension between Somalia and Ethiopia is rooted in historical disputes, particularly over the Ogaden region, which led to war between the two countries from 1977 to 1978. Somalia has long regarded the region as part of its territory, arguing that colonial borders unjustly divided the Somali people across Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Kenya; evidently, this region is predominantly inhabited by people of Somali origin. However, this does not justify Ethiopia's attempts to assert influence or gain access to Somali ports. Ethiopia's decision to sign a memorandum of understanding with the Somaliland Administration has been declared unlawful and an "act of aggression" by the Somali people, different international players such as the United States, African Union, European Union and the Arab League all calling for Somalia's sovereignty to be respected. There have been numerous meetings and calls for the two countries to defuse tensions, but Somalia still insists that unless Ethiopia respects their national sovereignty, then peace will remain elusive.
While Ethiopia currently lacks the financial resources to construct and develop a seaport, access to one would allow it to secure substantial loans from institutions such as the World Bank. Historically, once a country acquires a strategic asset like a port, it rarely relinquishes it. With time, it may become difficult for Somalia to retain complete control over its strategic assets since Ethiopia can use its investments to justify long-term control. We must also realize that with the existing history of territorial and political disputes between Somalia and Ethiopia. Somali people will view the approval of this deal as an attack on their territorial integrity, which could bring instability to the region and cause war between these two countries.
Rwanda has used the Port of Dar es Salaam for years, with more than 80% of its exports and imports passing through the seaport. Similarly, another landlocked country, Uganda, relies heavily on the Kenyan port of Mombasa to move goods to and from global markets. These countries have all signed trade agreements with their counterparts to enable smooth commerce. Uganda and Kenya, for example, have agreements under the East African Community (EAC) framework for streamlined trade, customs harmonization, and border clearance procedures. This demonstrates that if Ethiopia had pursued a more diplomatic approach to request port access rather than attempting to annex part of Somalia's territory through a sea access deal with the Somaliland Administration—the communication and outcome might have been different.
However, a few factors must be considered before granting Ethiopia access to this port. Allowing Ethiopia to gain control over key Somali ports could entrench existing power dynamics, significantly jeopardizing not only Somalia's sovereignty but also the stability of the entire region. History is ridden with tales of countries in similar situations that made decisions without due regard for historical grievances and the balance of power, which led to protracted conflicts. Such an example is the conflict between Rwanda and its neighboring country, Congo, which remains a deepening challenge for both countries and the broader region. It is a conflict that has span over three decades and has led to the displacement of nearly two million people and the killing of hundreds as clashes between the M23 and Congolese troops continue. We must learn from these conflicts between our neighbors and past lessons to prevent repeating the mistakes that have caused unnecessary suffering and instability.
Moreover, Ethiopia's internal challenges, including the ongoing conflict in the Tigray region and rising opposition to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, further complicate its ability to manage external threats and ties, Ethiopia may need to rethink all their relationships with other regional powers, countries and especially be reminded that neighbors need to unite. Ironically, Ethiopia is the home to the headquarters of the African Union (AU), whose primary focus is promoting unity and resolving conflicts across the continent. AU should consider relocating its headquarters as this would help ensure the organization remains neutral and avoid any appearance of bias. Alternatively, the AU should also focus on mediating disputes, reinforcing its role as a peacekeeper and formulating ways to foster international dependency.
Finally, as long as Somalia remains divided, external forces will continue to exploit these divisions to their advantage. The enemies of Somali unity will seek every opportunity to separate us. We must take a lesson from the United States, which, despite its historical challenges, has thrived as a unified federation by agreeing to work together. We must put aside our internal divisions and rally behind the leadership of our president during this critical time. Our leaders must also unite in this time of external threats to our sovereignty, reflect on the necessity of forming alliances and pacts with our neighbors, and make strategic moves based on Somalia's national interests. Now is the time to present a united front, especially when our sovereignty is under attack, and we should prioritize the defense of our nation. Our leaders also need to continue strengthening government institutions and security forces to reduce the pretexts for external intervention.
Achieving lasting peace and stability will require a delicate balance. Ethiopia must find ways to address its economic concerns without undermining Somalia's sovereignty or alienating its population. This will require sustained diplomatic efforts, confidence-building measures, and a commitment to resolving disputes through peaceful means rather than military action. For his part, Our President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, should work towards bringing all regions on board to a sit-down; it would be ideal for him to bring all our regional leaders together and foster unity amongst them. Our historical precedent should serve as a lesson on national unity, reading from the United States and how they overcame their divisions to bring unity to their citizens we should also strengthen our unity and address our internal conflicts and rally towards a stable and prosperous nation. Our country has made remarkable strides toward improving access to education, addressing poverty, and empowering local communities. To ensure that future generations inherit a stable and cohesive nation capable of providing opportunities for education, employment, and overall prosperity, we need to command our focus not on internal divisions or external pressures but on national progress. It is Paramount that Our path forward is one rooted in collaboration, unity and a commitment to investing in the future of our people.
Mr. Sadik Warfa is a consultant in international relations, governance and labour. He is the former Minister of Labour and Social Affairs and was a Member of the Federal Parliament for Mudug Constituency, Somalia.