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Somalia’s natural resources face shrinking window of relevance

Wednesday November 6, 2024
By Ahmed A Hussein


FILE - Offshore oil rig silhouetted against a vibrant sunset

Somalia is a land of unexploited potential. For years, it has been defined more by what it lacks than by what it possesses. Yet, beneath the surface, the country holds valuable natural resources that—if harnessed—could be the foundation of a thriving economy. Will Somalia act in time, or will it watch as global markets shift, leaving its untapped wealth squandered?
 
Somalia’s potential lies in four primary resources: fossil fuels, fisheries, livestock, and agriculture. Each sector is positioned to meet strong international demand, offering Somalia a viable path to economic stability. Fossil fuels are believed to exist in considerable quantities; early assessments suggest that Somalia’s untapped oil and natural gas reserves rival those of its more developed neighbors. Meanwhile, its fisheries remain some of the richest on the African continent, buoyed by one of the longest coastlines in the region. Somali waters teem with tuna and other valuable fish, prized across global markets.
 

Then there’s Somalia’s livestock, particularly its camels, cattle, sheep, and goats. For decades, livestock has been the backbone of Somalia’s exports, especially to markets in the Middle East, where demand for Somali meat—valued for its organic, grass-fed qualities—remains high. Finally, in the southern region, agriculture holds unique promise. Somalia has two major rivers, the Juba and Shabelle, that sustain fertile lands ripe for cultivation. This region already produces essential crops like sorghum, maize, and sesame, and has the potential to supply far more if infrastructure and investment allow. 
 
Together, these resources provide Somalia a rare opportunity to lift itself out of poverty and into middle-income status. But time is slipping away. Each of these resources faces an ever-narrowing window of relevance due to rapid shifts in global markets and technology. Somalia’s fossil fuels, for example, are coming to light at a time when the world is shifting away from oil and gas. Renewable energy sources—solar, wind, and hydro—are on the rise, and global demand for fossil fuels is expected to peak and then decline in the near future. If Somalia fails to stabilize and invest in extracting its reserves, it may miss out on fossil fuels as a foundation for economic growth, watching instead as markets turn to greener alternatives.
 
The story is similar with fisheries. While Somalia’s waters remain an invaluable resource, the global rise of aquaculture is changing the seafood market. Inland countries are now producing their own fish, often in controlled, sustainable environments, making it easier to meet domestic demand. This innovation, once unimaginable, is reducing the need for imported fish. Countries historically relying on fishing nations like Somalia are increasingly able to satisfy their own seafood demand, meaning Somalia’s share of this market may shrink.
 
In livestock, too, shifts in consumer behavior threaten Somalia’s advantage. The global meat industry faces competition from lab-grown and plant-based alternatives, which offer environmental benefits that appeal to modern consumers. Somali meat exports have a strong following, particularly in the Gulf region, but as alternative proteins grow more widely available and accepted, the demand for conventional meat could drop. If Somalia doesn’t expand its processing and export capacity soon, the global demand for organic, traditional meat could diminish as markets diversify.
 
Agriculture offers perhaps the most striking opportunity—and risk—for Somalia. In the fertile south, the potential for producing crops to meet both domestic and international demand is clear. However, this potential has yet to be fully realized, as poor infrastructure and limited investment hold back productivity. Meanwhile, technological advances such as hydroponics and soil-less farming are enabling countries with previously unarable land to grow their own food. Some of the regions that currently import crops from Somalia may soon find themselves able to produce staple foods more sustainably at home, reducing their dependence on imports.
 
Each of these resources is a window of opportunity, and each window is closing. Somalia’s natural endowments hold high value in the global market today. Exploiting these resources could not only take the country out of poverty but also generate revenues to reinvest in building a diversified, resilient economy—an economy that does not rely solely on natural resources but instead is fortified with robust service, trade, and technology sectors. This is the model that many countries have followed, using their “god-given” resources to fuel economic diversification, lifting them to middle and even high-income status.
 
For Somalia, the path forward is clear, but time is of the essence. A stable environment, improved infrastructure, and an investment-friendly climate are essential to turning these resources into engines of growth. Without prompt action, however, Somalia’s competitive advantages will erode. The window will not stay open forever. The future is in the hands of Somalia’s leaders, investors, and people. In a world where alternative resources and technologies are steadily advancing, the time for Somalia to act is now.

Ahmed A. Hussein, Consultant in New Business Development for value-added food processing and marketing. He can be reached at [email protected] 



 





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