By: Dr. Mohamed Omar Bincof
Tuesday January 16, 2024
This article examines Ethiopia’s potential motivations for signing the
recent illegal Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the self-declared
administration of Somaliland, as well as realistic policy options for
the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) to respond and defend its
territorial integrity. Given Somalia’s internal instability and
governance challenges, Ethiopia seems to have felt emboldened to pursue
its strategic maritime interests through Somaliland, assessing that the
FGS is currently limited in its ability to mount an effective response.
However, as will be discussed, Somalia has diplomatic, legal, economic,
and political options at its disposal, especially by mobilizing
international pressure from key allies and organizations. A coordinated
multipronged strategy focused on exposing the MoU’s illegality while
insulating Somalia from further fragmentation or distraction from
state-building priorities provides a constructive path forward to
nullify this violation of its sovereignty.
The illegal MoU signed
between Ethiopia and Somaliland must be understood in its proper
geopolitical context. Somalia has struggled with internal instability
and disunified governance for decades, starting with the 1991 civil war
that led to the northern regions breaking away to form Somaliland. With
the Federal Government still focused on the fundamentals of
state-building and consolidating control, especially against Al-Shabaab
militants, Ethiopia apparently felt Somalia was too internally weak to
block moves against its territorial integrity. Specifically, Ethiopia
aims to secure its much-needed access to seaports and the associated
economic benefits, with the Somaliland region looking to boost its
international legitimacy. While historical tensions and security
dilemmas help explain the situation, the result constitutes a violation
of international law regarding Somalia’s boundaries, further
complicating progress. The FGS must therefore balance shoring up its
internal governance while firmly confronting external threats.
In
responding to this destabilizing illegal agreement between Ethiopia and
Somaliland, Somalia must mobilize a coordinated strategy utilizing all
diplomatic, legal, economic, and political channels available. A key
imperative should be launching a focused diplomatic campaign to build
international opposition to the MoU’s clear violation of Somalia’s
sovereignty as established in international law. Specific efforts should
involve engaging the UN, African Union, Arab League, and other bodies
while leveraging relations with allies like the US and UK. Additionally,
Somalia should pursue legal recourse by engaging international law
experts to consider options that include dispute resolution mechanisms
within the UN and international justice mechanisms. The overarching
objective of such legal efforts is to pursue a binding ruling against
the MoU’s legitimacy.
On the economic front, targeted sanctions
and trade restrictions against Ethiopian entities could motivate policy
changes without fully alienating regional relationships. Finally, on the
domestic front, strengthening internal unity and stability in Somalia
is vital to withstand external interference efforts. This involves close
coordination with federal member states and domestic stakeholders to
project territorial integrity. This outline of key policy pillars
provides an initial framework for Somalia’s multipronged response while
setting up further discussion on coordination strategies and potential
barriers to implementation.
Achieving effective implementation of
the coordinated response strategy outlined will have several diplomatic
and political challenges for the Federal Government of Somalia.
Galvanizing unanimous opposition to the MoU within bodies like the
African Union and UN may prove difficult given competing strategic
interests among member states, while legal cases also tend to involve
lengthy timeframes before resolutions. Therefore, Somalia will need to
identify and cultivate key allies willing to endorse its position
through sponsoring and fast-tracking relevant motions or cases. On the
domestic front, a united front between the federal government and member
states, as well as clans, should be unified with a common message
against the violations of Somalia’s sovereignty. To this end, the
government should proactively use political capital to convene extensive
consultations with internal stakeholders on unified positions regarding
external territorial integrity. Regional relationships will also be
delicate to balance, as applying economic pressure risks blowback, so
targeted approaches would need evaluation. Maintaining focus on mutually
beneficial ties counteracts zero-sum thinking. With balanced engagement
domestically and internationally, Somalia can work to turn the MoU from
a setback into an opportunity for strengthening consensus regarding its
nationhood.
Moving forward, Somalia must seize this illegal MoU
as a catalyst to accelerate viable governance strategies that strengthen
its position against external interference and internal fragmentation.
While confronting violations of its sovereignty, progress in key state
building areas, including instituting functional federalism, formalizing
resource and power sharing frameworks, unified security sector reform,
and integrated infrastructure development, will bolster Somalia’s
regional leverage and relationships. Sustained diplomatic engagement
with partners in the Gulf, Europe, and Africa can also help attract
mutually beneficial trade and investment to support these
nation-building priorities. Simultaneously, persuasive messaging that
exposes the risks that agreements like the MoU pose not only to
Somalia’s stability, but also regional economic integration and joint
counterterrorism efforts will be influential. Somalia has an opportunity
to move towards increased strategic autonomy and national resilience by
implementing a coordinated response not in isolation but as part of the
holistic advancement of political, economic, and security governance.
With a patient but firm defense of its statehood justified under
international law, the long-term outcomes of this challenge can be
shifted positively by Somalia itself. Finally, in the short term,
Somalia desperately needs a powerful and trustworthy ally to help
develop its maritime forces and guard over its coastline, which is the
longest in Africa.
In conclusion, Ethiopia’s illegal memorandum
of understanding with Somaliland has predictably raised concerns over
regional instability and Somalia’s territorial integrity. However,
Somalia has viable diplomatic, legal, economic, and political options to
respond firmly against violations of its sovereignty. By balancing
domestic unity and coordinated foreign policy leverage, Somalia can
nullify the MoU’s legitimacy and credibility in the near term. More
broadly, this challenge highlights Somalia’s need to accelerate viable
governance strategies that deliver stability and prosperity for its
people. Mutually beneficial partnerships can be deepened with allies by
confronting interference efforts while proving Somalia’s commitment to
political reforms and participation in regional development. With
patience and wisdom, Somalia can both defend its nationhood and chart a
self-determined course towards increased strategic autonomy. What is
needed is prudent crisis management coupled with consistent leadership
to convert potential threats into opportunities for improved foreign
relations and investment in good governance.
Dr. Mohamed
Omar Bincof is an Asst. Prof. of Political science and international
Relations at Somali National University. Email:
[email protected]