Why Somalia Should Refrain from Dialogue with Abiy Ahmed: Navigating Ethiopia's expansionist ambitions

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Wednesday August 14, 2024
By Dekow Diriye Sagar

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan (C) speaks at a joint press conference with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Taye Atske Selassie (L) and Somali Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Minister Ahmed Muallim Fiqi in Ankara July 1, 2024. — Turkish Foreign Ministry

Ethiopia and Somalia, two neighboring nations in the Horn of Africa, share a long and complex history marked by tension, hostility, and conflict. Ethiopia's engagement with Somalia has often been driven by external influences and expansionist ambitions, rather than a genuine commitment to regional stability or cooperation. Despite its history as a regional aggressor, an Ethiopian, whether an individual or emperor, has never directly picked a fight with Somalis or Somalia except on two occasions—in the 1500s and 2006—each resulting in catastrophic consequences. In both instances, Ethiopia acted as a proxy for more powerful Western nations, motivated by shared Christian faith and broader geopolitical objectives rather than a genuine desire to foster peace with predominantly Muslim Somalia.

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The first major conflict occurred in the 1500s when the Portuguese Empire supported Christian Ethiopia in a prolonged war against Somalia, leading to the death of Ahmad Gran, a key Somali leader. The second notable instance was in 2006 when Ethiopia, backed by the United States, launched a military campaign against Somalia under the guise of the "War on Terror." However, the underlying motive was likely to avenge the humiliating defeats both nations suffered at Somalia's hands in 1977 and 1993, respectively. Therefore, given Ethiopia's expansionist mentality and Western support, Somalis should avoid engaging Abiy Ahmed and his administration in any form of dialogue.

First, Ethiopia already has access to commercial seaports in Somalia, Djibouti, and Kenya. However, it now seeks to establish a sea corridor and a military naval base, aiming to further destabilize Somalia. Granting sovereign sea access to a nation with a history of undermining Somalia's stability is unprecedented and dangerous and should be firmly resisted. Ethiopia has expressed its intention to create a naval base, a move ironically supported by France even before it declared its plans to annex Somali coastal territories. Abiy Ahmed's administration, backed by Western powers, harbors expansionist ambitions that exceed Ethiopia's actual capacity and are driven more by territorial desires than by genuine economic cooperation.

In addition, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Ethiopia, already struggling with internal disintegration and the challenge of expelling Eritrean forces from its territory, lacks the capacity to wage a successful war against Somalia without Western support. Despite this, his ambitions are supported by Western nations that have historically endorsed Ethiopia's expansionist policies, such as the annexation of the Hawd and Reserved Area. Given Abiy's weakened position relative to the Somali government, his actions are likely to galvanize Somali unity, strengthen nationalist movements, and embolden religious fundamentalists, including Al-Shabaab, in their defense of Somali territory and waters. This could trigger a new and more dangerous security crisis in the Horn of Africa, destabilizing the region and threatening commerce and trade in Bab-el-Mandeb, thereby jeopardizing supply chains and economic stability.

Abiy's insistence that Ethiopia's prosperity depends on access to the sea is misguided. Ethiopia already has access to commercial ports in neighboring countries, including Somalia. Building a navy on foreign land and creating destabilization will not bring peace or economic prosperity to Ethiopia. Even when Ethiopia was not landlocked and had access to the sea, it endured one of the worst famines in the 1970s, with millions dying of starvation. True prosperity for Ethiopia hinges on good governance, a free market, and a robust judicial system, not on territorial expansion or anarchist mentality.

Ethiopia is currently facing severe internal ethnic conflicts that threaten its stability. Furthermore, Eritrean forces continue to occupy parts of Ethiopian territory, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed lacks the military or diplomatic leverage to compel Eritrea's President Isaias Afwerki to withdraw. With these significant internal challenges, Abiy is unlikely to amass the strength necessary to assert control over Somalia. Supporters of his expansionist policies should be mindful that diplomatic missteps could drive Somalia closer to emerging global powers such as China, Iran, and Russia. Such a shift could realign regional dynamics and invite greater international involvement, complicating the already volatile situation and undermining Western influence in the region.

In addition to ethnic conflict, Ethiopia is currently dealing with religious tensions that could open a new front of war. Historically, Ethiopia has been an Orthodox Christian nation, accepting the faith long before much of the Western world. However, the installation of Abiy Ahmed—the first Evangelical leader supported by Western countries—has introduced evangelicalism to Ethiopia, creating religious tensions that could escalate into conflict within the Christian faith. While Ethiopia may survive an ethnic war, it is unlikely to withstand a religious one. Abiy's erratic behavior and policies could easily plunge him into further political crisis. Therefore, it makes perfect sense for Somalis to continue putting diplomatic pressure on Ethiopia for its naked aggression and wait to see how the currently wobbling administration can survive with all its internal crises.

Finally, Somalia must engage with the shadow supporters of Ethiopia, particularly the Western nations, pressuring the Somali government to engage in illegal dialogue. There is no point in engaging with Ethiopia if Abiy acts as an attack dog. We must dig beneath the surface and call a spade a spade. The dark forces condoning this aggression or, supporting Ethiopia in hidden ways, or helping it build a navy, must come forward, negotiate with the Somali government, and make their intentions clear. Somalia is open to collaboration and is strategically significant in global geopolitics. Therefore, Western nations—especially the United States, the United Kingdom, and France—must directly engage with Somalia based on their national interests. Coercing Somalia to align with Ethiopia will have ripple effects that extend beyond Somali borders for decades to come. A similar approach in the mid-2000s led to the rise of Al-Shabab, a legacy that will take generations to rectify.

In conclusion, considering Ethiopia's history of aggression and Abiy Ahmed's current expansionist ambitions, Somalia has compelling reasons to remain vigilant and avoid engaging in dialogue with his administration. To effectively protect its sovereignty, Somalia should resist undue pressure from Western powers that support Ethiopia and instead pursue strategic alliances with nations committed to regional stability and mutual respect. By adopting this cautious and principled approach, Somalia can safeguard its interests and contribute to lasting peace in the region and beyond.

Dekow is a former lecturer at the University of Kansas and the University of Nebraska-Omaha. He holds an MBA from West Texas A&M University, an MPA from Drake University, and a Master's in International Human Rights Law from Oxford University. As an independent political analyst and veteran humanitarian, the views expressed here are his own and do not reflect those of his current or former employers. He can be reached by email at [email protected]

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