By Dr. Mohamud M. Uluso
Tuesday August 1, 2023 
After 12 years of bungled
peace and state building process, the UN Security Council (UNSC) asked the Federal
Government of Somalia (FGS) to achieve “sovereign capabilities” in one
year in order to graduate from the impositions of Chapter VII
and Chapter VIII
of
the UN Charter, end the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) by the end of
December 2024, lift the arms embargo, and fulfill the Somali aspirations for secure,
stable, peaceful, united, democratic, and prosperous Somalia standing on its
feet. Sovereign capability, associated with the concept of “self-sufficiency,”
means “the ability to ensure, under full national control and without
reliance on any direct foreign assistance, the execution and sustainment of
national security and defense objectives.”
The security objectives
encompass all other national objectives. Unfortunately, Somalia wasted time and
resources for becoming worth of sovereign state that has all necessary
capabilities. The fast-approaching deadline to achieve sovereign capabilities
by mid-2024 should worry the Somali leaders and every Somali citizen concerned
with the future of his or her country.
In the case of Somalia,
the overlooked features for the status of sovereign capabilities are the
commitment to national unity, the respect of the rule of law, the completion of
the provisional constitution, and the strengthening of public confidence in
government through “just administrative decisions that are lawful,
reasonable, and conducted in a procedurally fair manner.” The activities
for achieving sovereign capabilities are laid out in:
v the
Provisional Federal Constitution;
v the
federal government’s program approved by the federal parliament;
v the
directives in the Resolutions and Presidential Statements of the UNSC;
v the
economic management program underpinning the Debt Relief Initiative (HIPC);
v Somalia’s
Transition Plan (STP) developed for the exit of the African Union peace and
security Forces after 16 years of presence in Somalia;
v The settlement of the status of the North West
Regions (Somaliland) of Federal Republic of Somalia (FRS);
v the
National Security Architecture;
v the
Justice and Correction reform plan;
v the
Guidelines for the preparation of credible free and fair one vote one person
election system.
In nutshell, the
sovereign capabilities are manifested in the establishment and performance of federal,
state, and local institutions capable of carrying out effectively and efficiently
the state functions in compliance with the rule of law throughout the country. The
synergic and systematic working relationship between the FGS and the Federal
Member States (FMS) represents the first step for achieving sovereign
capabilities. Political disagreements prevent such healthy intergovernmental
relations.
Although the FRS remains
practically fragmented, internationally, the FGS is recognized as legitimate government
representing Somalia as one country one people that is part of the world and
the international community. This special privilege should have motivated the
Somali leaders and the elite to expedite the political, social, economic, and
security integration of the country through genuine dialogue and consensus translated
into strong national institutions.
Unfortunately, the
experiences of 2020 and 2021deepened the state fragmentation and political
narcissism that perverted the Somali political culture. Narcissism is a
personality trait which combines selfishness, a feeling of entitlement, demand
for admiration, and lack of empathy. Narcissists have fragile self-confidence, a
divided self that vacillate between self-inflation and inferiority, and sense
of revenge of power. Political Narcissists have to be disdained and marginalized.
The UNSC, acting under
the authority of Chapter VII of the UN Charter, issued 13-page Resolution S/RES/2628/2022 of March 31, 2022
to direct the Somali authorities to undertake long list of political, legal,
security and administrative actions before the exit of AMISOM, renamed (ATMIS) forces
from Somalia on December 31, 2024. After that date, the FGS assumes the responsibilities
of protecting the Somali state and people.
It's worth quoting below
a critical passage of the Resolution, which illustrates the themes for
gaining sovereign capabilities:
“Recognizing that
military action alone will not be sufficient to resolve threats to peace and
security in Somalia, emphasizing that the protection of civilians is critical
to build sustainable peace, and reiterating the need to pursue a holistic approach that reinforces the
foundations of peace and stability, …. through enhancing:
i)
Effective governance and public administration,
ii)
Anti-corruption
iii)
Preventing organized crimes
iv)
The rule of law
v)
Justice and law enforcement
vi)
Efforts to counter terrorism,
vii)
Efforts to promote terrorist
disengagement and defections
viii)
Preventing and countering violent
extremism conducive to terrorism
ix)
Security sector reform
x)
Inclusive politics and
reconciliation.”
Each theme involves infrastructural
structure, policies, laws, rules, procedures, practices, transparency and
accountability.
To ensure a fully
functioning federal system which is now in question, the resolution urges the
FGS and FMS to collaborate effectively and efficiently on all national
priorities for the benefit of all Somalis. As logical step to this regard, the
resolution underscores the urgent need to finalize the constitution as the
legal and political foundation for Somalia’s government and institutions.
The resolution authorizes
the recruitment of new security forces totaling 22,825 cadets by the end
of June 2024, subject to appropriate vetting procedure and the establishment of
civilian oversight and accountability of the security and defense apparatus.
Although the FGS is at serious capacity disadvantage to collaborate and
coordinate with multiple international partners that have different, sometimes
conflicting political and cultural interests and priorities, the collaboration
and coordination between the FGS and International partners remain vital.
On December 22, 2022,
the World Bank approved $75 million project, titled “Somalia Enhancing Public Resource
Management Project (SERP),” with the aim of building state legitimacy, strengthening accountability,
transparency and reducing institutional fragmentation required for delivery
of services to the Somali citizens. Performance of public administration
is far from acceptable level. Meetings of the sectoral Ministries of the
FGS and FMS are frequent without clear rule based functional integration.
As show of
intergovernmental relationship, the Ministry of Finance publishes at the end of
each month a consolidated fiscal budget data of the federal government and five
FMS – Puntland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubbaland, and Southwest. It’s sad to
note that data from Puntland are not included in the consolidation data of the
month of May 2023.
President Hassan Sheikh
Mohamud (HSM) travelled to New York, USA to address the UNSC meeting of June
22, 2023 on Somalia, chaired by the State Minister of the Ministry of foreign
affairs of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). He appealed for the lifting of arms
embargo in place since 1992 as a necessary condition to effectively defeat
terrorist group Al Shabab and to build a peaceful and prosperous future for
Somalia.
In reaction, Voice of
America (VOA) and Hiraal Institute published two articles under the titles: 1. Somalia Appeals for Removal of Arms
embargo; and 2. Locked and Loaded: The
Dangers of Prematurely Lifting the Somali Arms Embargo. Both articles highlighted the risks
associated with the premature lifting of arms embargo on the following grounds.
First, based on the deep-seated clan loyalty in the Somali society and the lack
of integration of Somali National Army (SNA), lifting of arms embargo could
fuel inter-clan conflicts; Second, the FGS lacks the authority and capacity to
fully control all its borders or entry ports. Therefore, the risks for illicit
entry of arms in the country are high and those illegal arms could end up in
the hands of criminals and terrorists; third, the existence of open arms market
in Somalia while the federal and state governments lack the capacity to monitor
and trace; fourth, the potential instability in the neighboring countries of
Somalia for the flows of illegal arms in Somalia.
Although the UNSC
awaits from August to November 2023 several reports from the FGS, AU, and
UN, and UN Secretary General, it seems
that the observations in the VOA and Hiraal Institute articles have influenced
the internal deliberations of the UNSC as can be inferred from its 8-page Resolution S/RES/2687 of 27 June 2023.
The resolution reiterates the holist governance approach for
achieving sovereign capabilities asked in the Resolution 2628 of March 31, 2022.
In addition, it solicits the implementation of the National Security
Architecture agreements in terms of budgeting, training, procurement, force
integration and distribution between federal and states, proper management of
weapons and ammunition at federal and state levels, the fight against illicit
trade of arms and ammunition, and finally early stabilization and
reconciliation of all areas liberated from Al Shabab, the meaningful
participation of civil society in public policy discussions.
The Resolution
encourages the UN member states to support Somalia with the establishment of maritime
security, divided into coast guard, maritime police, and naval forces to reduce
maritime crimes and prevent smuggling. To take advantage of this support, the
FGS and FMS should resolve as quickly as possible all pending political and
constitutional questions for united territory and people under the rule of democratic
federal and state governments.
In the light of the
above discussion, the FGS and FMS should pay close attention to the directives
of the UNSC Resolutions and the perilous transition from shared sovereignty
situation under chapter VII and VIII to fully fledged sovereignty situation sustained
by sovereign capabilities. The danger of falling short of the target is high.
Dr. Mohamud M. Uluso
[email protected]