By Dr. Mohamud M. Uluso
Thursday December 1, 2022
To
overcome the complex problems of civil war, state fragility, and
underdevelopment, the Somali people supported risky political changes for a government
that promotes freedom, justice, peace, and prosperity in Somalia. For example, the Islamic movements enjoyed
popular support to end the brutal reigns of warlords and the military occupation
of Ethiopia and establish new government.
But
Al-Shabab that splintered from the Islamic movements lost public support after
it morphed into terrorist group affiliated with Al-Qaida and started committing
unspeakable atrocities against Somalis. Besides killing and maiming thousands
of innocent Somalis, destroying private properties, Al-Shabab impeded economic
development and delivery of humanitarian assistance forcing millions of Somalis
into internally displaced camps and migration (Tahrib) for survival. The South-Central
of Somalia became safe haven for Al-Shabab.
Sadly,
under the administration of president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo (2017-2022), Al-Shabab
took over the power, control, and resources of the federal government, invaded
Ethiopia, and provided support to international terrorist groups. The United
Nations (UN), the United States Government (USG), the European Union (EU), and
the African Union (AU)- were aware of the growing power and threats of
Al-Shabab and the collusion between the federal government and Al-Shabab but
decided to cover-up to the peril of the Somali people.
President
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) elected for second time on May 15, 2022, vowed to
eliminate Al-Shabab by force in Somalia. In fact, the liberation of Somalia
from the brutal grips of Al-Shabab is the first pillar of the six pillars of the
federal government’s program approved by the House of the people of the Federal
Parliament.
To
make the vow of “no negotiation with Al-Shabab” mandatory, on
July 19, President HSM wrote op-ed titled “Somalia’s President Wants Help to Fight
Africa’s Terrorist Groups,”
and on October 15, wrote another open-ed
titled “There is no Turning Back: We Must
Finish Off Al Shabab,” published
by international media. He undertook domestic and foreign trips for mobilization
of support. He engaged the presidents of the Federal Member States (FMS) to
fulfill their share of responsibilities.
President
HSM’s proclamation set the stage for brutal and violent confrontation between
Al-Shabab and federal government. Al-Shabab didn’t waste time and started waging
violent attacks against government forces and civilians to gain the upper-hand.
The
president’s proclamation hinges on three elements – complete defeat of Al-Shabab
militarily, fight
against Al-Shabab’s distortion of Islamic faith, and closing
the income generating sources of Al-Shabab. While
the implementation of the first element is the key, the second element represents
a groundbreaking in the combat against radicalism, terrorism, and opposition to
the Westphalian state in Somalia. Given the peculiar financial situation of
Somalia, the implementation of the third element requires diligent approach.
The financial system of Somalia is vulnerable to foreign recrimination and
harm.
President
HSM rightly argued that the complete defeat of Al Shabab is a precondition to
fast-track the long-delayed state building process and to fulfil the 17 Goals of 2030 Sustainable Development
Agenda. However, studies
and assessments conducted about the performance of Somali Elite and the foreign
influence in Somali politics revealed the invincibility or impossibility of
defeating Al Shabab militarily and the inevitability of negotiation with
Al Shabab to save Somalia from “intractable war with no end in sight.” Most
probably, the International Partners of Somalia are receptive to the findings
of the studies and assessments conducted by their scholars.
The
International Crisis Group (ICG), a reputable international organization, proposed
negotiation with-Al Shabab. On June 21, 2022, ICG issued 46-page report under
the title, “Considering Political Engagement with
Al Shabab in Somalia.”
The
conclusion of the report is based on how long the war with Al Shabab continued
-fifteen years –; and its devastation; the failure of the efforts of the federal
government, FMS, and the International Partners to defeat Al Shabab militarily
for 15 years; the waning of the international support; the effectiveness,
adaptation, resilience to counter-insurgency campaigns and setbacks, and the deep
entrenchment in the Somali society, particularly in the South Central Somalia
Al-Shabab has demonstrated in the last 15 years; and the expected departure of the
AU troops in 2024. The report argues that “even new leadership is
unlikely to prevail over Al-Shabab by force alone.”
The
report is not denying the challenges to dialogue with Al Shabab, but it is insisting
that the alternative is never-ending war with Al-Shabab. It contends that given the ineffectiveness of
the security forces of the federal government in the last 15 years, the
achievement of President HSM’s goal of conclusive defeat of Al Shabab seems
almost impossible. Finally, the report points out that the promise of peace
among Somalis by President HSM raises the question, “whether that peace is
inclusive and extends to Al-Shabab?”
President
HSM’s proclamation diverges from the long-standing US government counter-insurgency
strategy based on disruption, degradation, and containment. Therefore,
President HSM’s proclamation of “no negotiation with Al Shabab” faces
the challenge of overcoming the skepticism and intrigues of locals and
foreigners.
Additional
obstacles to the successful implementation of President HSM’s proclamation include the unresolved political, security,
and economic problems left behind by former government of president Farmajo;
the incapacity of federal and state institutions to develop and manage a
strategy for defeating Al-Shabab in short time; the uncertainty about the support
needed for the participation of civilians “Ma’awisleey,” which means “civilians
dressed with Sarong,” in the war
against Al-Shabab; the messiness of US Counter-terrorism policy; the lack of
patriotism, morality, and civic responsibility of the Somali Elite accused of “channeling
their energy into bickering over power
and resources, leaving the struggle against Al Shabab a secondary concern (ICG);”
the freedom of the presidents of the FMS to ignore or sabotage the efforts of
the federal government; clan rivalries; and the mysterious fate of the Somali
forces in Eritrea. The renewal of the arms embargo on Somalia expresses the contempt
and poor rating of the UN Security Council towards the whole Somali State.
So
far, the presidents of the FMS are on vacation, bystanders, and saboteurs of
the campaign against Al-Shabab. The reticence of the international partners of
Somalia in supporting the war against Al Shabab reinforces the narrative about
the invincibility of Al Shabab. The defeat of Al-Shabab militarily will
contribute to averting famine and climate change disasters in Somalia.
To
prevent constant attacks and threats against liberated areas in Hirshabelle and
Galmudug States or other places, the entire nation must be on war-footing. Without
restricting the freedom and movements of the citizens, the federal government,
the FMS, and Benadir Region must mobilize the citizens for vigilance and
defense against violent attacks from Al-Shabab. The efforts of Somalis should
be complemented by quick support from the international partners to provide
protection, administration, and stabilization to the areas liberated from
Al-Shabab.
Without
sacrificing other pillars of the federal government’s program, the
implementation of President HSM’s proclamation requires synchronized efforts of
the federal government, FMS, the International Partners, and the Somali people
at all levels. The fight against Al-Shabab tests the symbiotic working relationship
between the federal and state governments and the respect of the articles 47, 87
(1) and 90 (a, b) of the provisional constitution, and the recognition that Al-Shabab
is an existential threat to Somalia.
The
momentum of the war against Al-Shabab should not fizzle. The leaders of the FMS
and the international partners of Somalia must show will and determination in
the liberation of Somalia by force from the bondages of Al-Shabab as quickly as
possible. The alternative will be a long-term disaster for Somalia.
Dr. Mohamud M. Uluso
[email protected]