Hiiraan Online

The questions that remain unanswered are many, but the most important one is what is the political significance of the current change and how does this change shape the future of the region?

 Tactical moves lead to a (tactical) agreement.

The current political uncertainty in Hiiraan region started when the Islamist Governor held a press conference on the 31^st of August and surprised most people by announcing that the region was no longer part of the current transitional government headed by Sh.Sharif[1]. In this press conference he explained that his administration took the decision after it became apparent to him that the region’s decision making power has been transferred to Mogadishu and that decisions important to the region are being made in Mogadishu. He then cited the two instances in which Ethiopian troops entered Beledweyne, the regional capital, which was at the request of the transitional government that is struggling in Mogadishu to exert its authority and control over the capital city. After the declaration followed a period in which the Governor held talks with the opposing factions to the central government in Mogadishu, mainly Alshabab.       

From these talks followed an agreement in which surprisingly the radical group of Alshabab reached an agreement not with the Governor and his administration as one would expect, but with the Somali clan of Xawaadle that is dominant in the region. This agreement had 4 points[2]:

1)      That the clan of Xawaadle accepts the adoption of Islamic Law in their lands

2)      That both parties withdraw their militia from the city of Beledweyne

3)      That both parties end hostilities

4)      That both parties solve their issues under Islamic Law.

This agreement was the first in its nature, since it is one between a radical Islamist faction vying for political power (toppling of the current TFG and the creation of a radical Islamic government) and a Somali clan. By scrutinizing the 4 points of the agreement one can detect the true reasons (intentions) behind this agreement, namely:

-          A tactical move by Alshabab in which they want to focus on AMISOM in Mogadishu and Ahlu Sunnah in Central Somalia.

-          A tactical move by the Governor of Hiiraan in which he wants to rally the clan of Xawaadle behind his political agenda for the region.

One can explain the coming about of this agreement by pointing out to the stiff opposition Alshabab had received in Hiiraan from the local population and thus from one of the largest clans in the region: Xawaadle. Another explanation lies in the fact that Alshabab is preparing for the second phase in their war effort, namely that of against AMISOM, who have now a new mandate which enables them to conduct military operations against the opposition factions, and more importantly the threat coming from the faction Ahlu Sunnah which after having conquered Galgaduud is pushing for Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle. So, the agreement is a tactical cease-fire in which Alshabab wants to focus its energy and resources on AMISOM in Mogadishu and Ahlu Sunnah in Central Somalia. For the Governor of Hiiraan the agreement also offers gains since he wants to rally his clansmen behind his peace initiatives for the region. This does not come as a surprise to most people since it was just recently when other key leaders of the clan, namely Gen.Mukhtar and the previous Governor of the region,  have publicly accused the Governor of selling out the region  to outsiders (Alshabab) and that he handed over the control of Beledweyne to them.

Thus, as becomes clear the agreement that was reached yesterday is one that both parties entered because of tactical considerations and not one that is meant to establish a lasting peace in the region. The important question that remains open is: what should people do with this agreement? Should the people of Hiiraan reject it immediately or accept it and make the best out of it? In my opinion, the question should be formulated differently:

How can the region and people benefit from this (tactical) agreement, that mirrors a temporary seize-fire, and transform it into a comprehensive campaign for lasting peace in the region?

The road towards representative regional governance = the road towards lasting peace

The people of Hiiraan should first of all reassess their current political position within Somalia. Ever since 1991, the fate and destiny of Hiiraan has been linked to Southern Somalia and the insecurity raging in the capital city, Mogadishu. The region’s bordering to Ethiopia has also led to many Ethiopian incursions and unfortunately a de facto Ethiopian rule over the district of Jawiil (Kalabeyr)  and Ceel-Gaal in Hiiraan. The region itself has been divided into two halves and the politicians and key leaders hailing from the region have all focused their attention towards Mogadishu and the emergence of a central government, at the cost of  regional governance. This current sad position of Hiiraan within Somalia is in sharp contrast with the leading role the province played in the creation of the Somali Republic in 1960. The region was instrumental in the SYL campaign for Somalia’s Independence, with Beledweyne been an important city from which key SYL leaders were elected to the National Assembly. More importantly, the first President of the Somali Republic was born in Beledweyne district and in1964 the two men contending for the Presidency were both from the region. Thus, the question which many who are aware of the leading role of Hiiraan in the past are asking is: How can Hiiraan regain its old leading role within Somalia?

The declaration of autonomy made by the Islamist Governor should be welcomed and supported (with conditions) as it liberates the region from an awkward situation were the most important decisions facing the region are made by a foreign-created regime that is on life-support and is barely capable in exerting its control and authority over Mogadishu, let alone other places in Somalia. This support for the decision made by the governor must be conditional, since the interest of the people should be safeguarded while one looks towards the long-term development of the region.

Support for the Governor’s political agenda should be based on the following three conditions:

-          The Governor and his administration must reach out to the other Somali clans residing in Hiiraan, so that all groups can support the peace initiatives for the region.

-          The professionals, intellectuals, Diaspora, different sections of Civil Society in Hiiraan, in short: all the people that care for the region and want to have their say for the future of the region must be allowed to participate in the process of charting out the future of Hiiraan.

-          The creation of local representative administrations for the region and its different districts should be the main objective for the current Governor. 

The first condition is an important one since Hiiraan region is home to various Somali groups and since there are some disputes between the various Somali groups. The current peace initiatives of the Governor must be broadened to incorporate all groups living in Hiiraan region. In this, the traditional leaders of the various groups can take the initiative and lead the peace process for the region. Without having a regional agreement in which all groups of Hiiraan participate in,  the region will not have a lasting peace.

The second condition is important since there are many groups of people that care for the region and as such want to participate in developing the region but can not because of various reasons. One of these reasons is that in Somalia, the one with the military power is also the one calling the shots. This situation can be broken by making the current administration of Hiiraan transparent and representative. The current Governor can take the lead in the creation of a regional administration that is elected to power by the people in the region. In this process, he needs all assistance from all those that care for the region and are prepared to work towards the development of the region. On the part of the intellectuals, Diaspora, and civil society, it is our responsibility and plight to focus our energy and resources in charting out the future for our region. The time of sitting on the side-lines is over, and today is when we all can contribute to the future of Hiiraan.

The third condition is important for the long-term development of the region. The only way to ensure that the power to make decisions concerning the region resides within the region and is not transferred to other entities (like currently to TFG in Mogadishu) is by creating local representative administration for the region and its different districts. A regional, representative administration will not only ensure lasting peace in the region but will also ensure that decisions important to the region are not transferred to a regime in Mogadishu.

Conclusion

The Governor’s decision to make Hiiraan independent from the current central government headed by Sh.Sharif has triggered a phase of uncertainty about the region and its future. The Governor and his peace initiatives are rooted in tactical considerations as discussed before, and as such have taken all those involved in the region by surprise. Although the Governor and Alshabab have both their reasons for entering into an agreement (mirroring a temporary seize-fire) it is up to the people of Hiiraan whether to benefit from this (tactical) agreement and transform it into a comprehensive campaign for lasting peace and representative regional governance for Hiiraan. The first step towards this comprehensive campaign is by welcoming and (conditionally) supporting this agreement. In order to ensure that the current agreement is abided by both parties the people of Hiiraan should be proactively engaged in policy matters concerning the region.

The Diaspora, intellectuals, professionals, civil society, in short the enlightened segments of Hiiraan should rally behind the agreement and participate in the process of charting out the future of the region. Hiiraan is dear to us all, so we should all seize the opportunity to share our views concerning the future of the region. If we fail to stand up for what is dear to us and fail to articulate our interest into a comprehensive campaign for lasting peace and representative regional governance for Hiiraan, we run the risk of becoming victims of perpetual warfare and the risk of turning Beledweyne into another Mogadishu.

By Ismaciil Jimale 

[email protected]