Hiiraan Online

Mogadishu (HOL) — Somalia is sliding toward another election crisis as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s push for direct voting clashes with opposition from federal member states and political rivals, raising fears of renewed unrest and strained international support, a new report warns.

A new report by the International Crisis Group warns that Mogadishu’s reforms, aimed at replacing clan-based indirect voting with direct elections, could plunge the country back into turmoil if leaders fail to compromise. “Without an inclusive electoral roadmap, Somalia risks repeating the turmoil of 2021,” the report said, referencing deadly street battles in Mogadishu when elections were delayed and then-President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, known as Farmajo, attempted to extend his mandate.

The dispute has already spilled into armed clashes. In December 2024 and again in mid-2025, fighting between federal troops and Jubaland forces killed dozens and forced hundreds of government soldiers to flee into Kenya. In June 2025, Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe traveled to Garowe to cement an alliance with Puntland leader Said Abdullahi Deni, uniting the two most powerful states against Mohamud’s reforms.

Puntland and Jubaland say the new system strips them of influence, particularly over the selection of lawmakers who play a decisive role in electing the president. For years, control of indirect voting has given state leaders leverage in shaping Somalia’s national politics. Both now argue the reforms are designed to tilt the field in favor of the incumbent.

Nearly 1 million people have registered for Mogadishu’s first district council election, scheduled for Oct. 30. Officials tout it as a test run for nationwide direct voting in 2026. But Puntland and Jubaland have rejected the reforms, saying they strip power from states and tilt the contest toward the incumbent. Opposition leaders, including former presidents Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmajo” and Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, have also criticized the timetable as unrealistic and politically manipulated.

At the core of the dispute are constitutional changes passed in March 2024 that centralized power in Mogadishu. s Somalia’s electoral system, which since 2012 has relied on clan elders to select lawmakers who then choose the president. Mohamud argues that universal suffrage would strengthen legitimacy, but opponents warn that rushing reforms risks fresh violence and could delay polls. The changes included provisions to allow direct presidential elections, give the president authority to dismiss the prime minister, cap political parties at three, and hand full control of polls to a national electoral commission. Opposition figures, including Farmajo, former president Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, and ex-prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire, say the measures represent a power grab.

Facing pushback, the government in August announced concessions: parliament would retain the power to elect the president and dismiss the prime minister, and any political group winning at least 10 percent of parliamentary seats could become a national party, ending the three-party restriction. These pledges remain informal and still need parliamentary ratification.  However, Puntland and Jubaland remain outside the talks, and many opposition figures doubt Mogadishu’s willingness to share control.

The Independent National Electoral and Boundaries Commission planned district elections for June 2025 in 50 to 60 districts but delayed them due to security and logistical setbacks. A pilot vote in Mogadishu is now set for Oct. 30, with nearly 1 million people registered. The ballot will serve as a test case for universal suffrage. Success could strengthen the government’s case for reforms; failure or cancellation would harden opposition demands for a return to the indirect model.

The crisis unfolds as al-Shabab mounts a major offensive that has erased government gains made in 2022–23. The African Union’s Support and Stabilisation Mission, vital for securing cities, has raised only 15 percent of its 2025 budget and faces an uncertain future.

At the same time, Somalia’s backers have grown wary and donor fatigue is growing. During the 2021 electoral crisis, the European Union suspended budget support and the United States imposed visa bans on political spoilers. Diplomats now warn that another contested process could trigger further cuts to aid, weakening a federal government already stretched thin.

The ICG urged leaders to compromise by allowing direct voting in districts where feasible while keeping a reformed indirect system for state and national seats. It also recommended expanding electoral colleges, reshaping the national commission to include opposition nominees, and creating an independent court for election disputes.

Somalia has not held one-person, one-vote elections since 1969, and many believe the Oct. 30 Mogadishu vote will serve as a litmus test. A credible ballot could build momentum for broader reforms; a flawed or aborted poll could deepen divisions and set the stage for confrontation as the 2026 deadline approaches.