Thursday March 27, 2025
This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Crisis Group’s Somalia expert Omar Mahmood about what the impact of a major Trump pivot on Somalia could look like, as well as Al-Shabaab’s new offensive and the recent thaw in Ethiopia-Somalia relations.
In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia and the Horn of Africa to discuss Somalia’s uncertain new global context with the dawn of a new Trump administration. They first unpack the recent Ankara declaration between Somalia and Ethiopia and the failure to find funding for the new African Union mission in Somalia. They then explore what the Trump administration might do on Somalia, the potential for a major rupture in Washington’s support for Somalia’s federal government, and what this could mean for European, Turkish and Arab support for Somalia’s government. They also assess new offensives from Al-Shabaab and how the group is trying to posture itself amid all these shifts.
For more, check out the last episodes of The Horn on Somalia “What to Expect from the New AU Mission in Somalia” and “Somalia amid a Swirl of Regional Tensions” as well as our Somalia country page.