Saturday September 14, 2024
Addis Ababa (HOL) — Ethiopia has formally expressed its concerns to the United States over the potential deployment of Egyptian troops to Somalia, particularly in the wake of the African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) ending in late 2024. The issue arises as regional tensions mount, with Ethiopia and Somalia already in a strained relationship over their growing security ties with Egypt.
The dispute began earlier this year when Ethiopia signed an agreement with Somaliland, the self-declared republic that Somalia considers part of its territory. This move, widely criticized by Somalia's federal government, was followed by Somalia forging a defence and security agreement with Egypt. Ethiopia, which views Egypt as a strategic rival, has grown increasingly wary of Somalia's alliances.
These tensions heightened after Egyptian military aircraft landed in Mogadishu, reportedly delivering military aid, according to sources quoted by Reuters. Ethiopia is particularly concerned about Egypt's potential role in the region after ATMIS ends, fearing Egyptian troops might be among those sent to Somalia.
In response, a U.S. delegation led by Special Envoy Mike Hammer visited Addis Ababa to discuss regional security with Ethiopian officials, including Foreign Minister Taye Atske-Selassie. Ethiopia underscored its opposition to foreign troops, especially from Egypt, being deployed to Somalia after ATMIS concludes. The peacekeeping mission, which has been vital to stabilizing Somalia, is set to end in December 2024 and will be replaced by a new African Union operation, AUSOM, in early 2025.
Despite these discussions, specific details of AUSOM, including its funding and the countries involved, remain unclear. The plan is expected to be submitted to the United Nations by both Somalia and the African Union in October.
Ethiopian media outlets reported that Addis Ababa is urging for calm, with Foreign Minister Taye Atske-Selassie emphasizing the need to reduce tensions in the region. Ethiopia has consistently opposed any increase in Egyptian influence in Somalia, particularly as it continues to face pressure over its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project on the Nile.
Mohamed Mukhtar, a regional analyst, told the BBC that Ethiopia's current diplomatic maneuvering could be an attempt to deflect attention from internal challenges by focusing on regional tensions. Mukhtar argued that the U.S. envoy's primary goal was to address Ethiopia's obligations under the Pretoria Agreement with the Tigray region, rather than the Somalia-Ethiopia dispute. He also suggested that Ethiopia's fears of Egyptian military deployment in Somalia are unfounded, as there are no reports of Egyptian or other foreign troops being stationed there under United Nations approval.Earlier this week U.S. President Joe Biden extended sanctions on individuals and groups involved in Ethiopia's ongoing conflict, which Biden described as a threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests. U.S. sanctions were first imposed in 2021 amid the Tigray War, which caused widespread devastation and humanitarian crises.
The sanctions primarily target entities from Ethiopia, Eritrea, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), and the Amhara regional government.
Despite a peace agreement between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF in November 2022, tensions have escalated in the Amhara region, particularly over the government's attempts to disband local insurgent groups like the Fano militias.
Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre addressed the issue, firmly stating that Somalia had not requested foreign troops. "No country has approached us to deploy their forces in Somalia," Barre said. "As an independent nation, we reserve the right to seek support from Arab countries, but this does not imply we are bringing foreign troops into Somalia."
Efforts to resolve the Somalia-Ethiopia dispute through two previous rounds of talks have yielded no results. The two countries are scheduled to meet again in Ankara later this week to continue seeking a diplomatic solution.