NTV Kenya
Roselyne Obala
Sunday November 24, 2024
Somalia’s Jubaland state is heading to a chaotic election that some experts fear could draw back gains on Al-Shabaab militants, after rival candidates announced parallel electoral plans.
The federal state of Somalia, which is closest to Kenya, is due to conduct presidential elections on November 25.
But the candidates haven’t agreed on the rules of the electoral process, who should run or who should conduct the polls.
Instead, two rival camps have announced separate election plans, much to the annoyance of the Federal Government in Mogadishu.
The bone of contention is President Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe’s decision to seek a third term.
The move has sparked a constitutional controversy with his rivals claiming he is not eligible to run after serving two terms.
The Jubaland Electoral and Boundaries Commission announced the presidential polls will be conducted on November 25.
But a group seeking to unseat the incumbent says it will hold parallel elections in protest.
On November 20, international partners in Mogadishu called for de-escalation of Federal Government of Somalia and Jubaland in polls dispute following the National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting.
“We urge all stakeholders to engage in constructive and inclusive discussions on the electoral process. Jubaland State is urged to return to the NCC for an open discussion of all outstanding issues, and to restore ties with the FGS. We encourage all parties to refrain from provocations and re-engage in an open dialogue, before any electoral processes are finalized,” the international partners said in a statement.
“International Partners support Somalia on advancing its state building agenda, including the ambition of progressively moving towards one-person, one-vote elections through increasingly inclusive and participatory voting systems.”
The statement added that this includes garnering public and political support by developing electoral processes, and a viable timeline for completing them, that are inclusive, widely accepted, achievable, and guarantee national security and stability.
Those who signed the statement include envoy from African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), Belgium, Djibouti, European Union (EU) Delegation, Finland, Germany, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Italy, Saudi Arabia, League of Arab States (LAS), Qatar, Russian Federation, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States and the United Nations.
President Madobe has led Jubaland since 2013, navigating the region through significant security challenges. However, his decision to pursue a third term has been widely opposed.
According to Article 70 of the Jubaland Constitution, a president is limited to two terms.
But Madobe maintains that a constitutional amendment in June 2024 permits his candidacy. However, his rivals argue that the amendment was enacted by a parliament whose mandate had expired in August 2023, rendering it invalid.
The rival group, led by Abdi Ali Raghe and Dr Abdullahi Ali, is spearheading plans for parallel elections, arguing that Madobe has locked them out of the exercise.
Both Raghe and Ali have cited Madobe’s struggles on the security front, as well as poverty in communities to project themselves as better alternatives.
Ali has further called on the federal government to support a regime change in Jubaland for the sake of stability.
“Somalia has now joined the East Africa Community and hence must ensure there is stability in the region, starting with its own soil. This will be achieved through change which we will ensure comes with better life,” he said.
Raghe, on his part, says his main agenda is to enhance peace in Jubaland.
“We are focused in peace and stability in the region. Through cooperation with subclass we intend to engage the people in a mega conference that will take two to three months. The outcome of the conference will give the way forward for Jubaland,” he said.
Jubaland borders Ethiopia and Kenya and its citizens share cultural ties with the people of Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu counties in Kenya.
Kenya considers Jubaland a possible buffer zone against the Al-Shabaab insurgency.
Last week, Somalia Prime Minister Hamza Barre blasted President Madobe for his schemes to remain in power.
He compared President Madobe to someone who has stolen a camel and expects it to give birth to a legitimate calf.
Mogadishu is opposed to the planned elections in Jubaland this year before the federal states have aligned their electoral calendars.
Mogadishu wants Jubaland, Hirshabelle, Galmudug and South West to all hold their respective elections in 2025.
These federal states have four-year terms for their Presidents, while Puntland, another federal state, has a five-year presidential term.