Wednesday January 24, 2024
By Nosmot Gbadamosi,
East African leaders want to arbitrate conflicts in both countries. But neither is interested in outside help.
Demonstrators hold banners and flags in support of Somalia’s government following a port deal signed between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland in Mogadishu on Jan. 3. ABDISHUKRI HAYBE/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
East African leaders have asked Sudan’s warring generals to immediately cease fighting and meet face-to-face within 14 days. They also demanded that Ethiopia withdraw from its port access deal with Somaliland and seek consent from Somalia.
The heads of state of the eight-nation trade bloc known as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) met Thursday in Entebbe, Uganda, on the sidelines of the Kampala-based summits of the Non-Aligned Movement and the G-77 plus China—a gathering of developing nations.
East African officials agreed on establishing a high-level panel to work on revising an African Union-proposed road map for peace in Sudan within one month. The panel members, who were appointed by the African Union Commission chairperson, comprise the AU’s Mohamed Ibn Chambas; former Ugandan Vice President Speciosa Wandira-Kazibwe; and the AU chair’s former special representative for Somalia, Francisco Madeira.
Yet it seems that neither Sudan nor Ethiopia is willing to cooperate with IGAD. Sudan even suspended its membership in the group. The junta accused the bloc of “violating” the country’s sovereignty and refused to attend the meeting after IGAD invited the leader of the army’s rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is widely known as Hemeti.
War broke out in April 2023 between Hemeti’s RSF and Sudan’s army, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, as both leaders vied for power. The fighting has killed about 12,000 people and displaced 7 million. And more than half of Sudan’s population of 45 million need aid.
Burhan is enraged with the African leaders, who offered Hemeti diplomatic recognition at a time when the Sudanese army has lost ground to the RSF in the city of Wad Madani, much of the capital city of Khartoum, and the western Darfur region. Both sides have been accused of war crimes, but Hemeti has enjoyed a string of official receptions befitting a head of state rather than a feared warlord during his recent tour of six African nations—including regional mediating powers Kenya and South Africa.
Hemeti allegedly has the backing of the United Arab Emirates, which has reportedly been funneling arms to the RSF via Amdjarass in northern Chad, according to an as-yet unpublished United Nations report seen by Foreign Policy. U.N. investigators documented ethnic-based massacres, summary executions, and rapes similar to the atrocities carried out by Hemeti’s janjaweed militia in Darfur two decades ago.
The Emirati foreign ministry said in a statement that the country “is not supplying arms and ammunition to any of the warring parties” and denied violating the U.N. arms embargo in Sudan. U.S. officials are concerned that an outright win for Hemeti would strengthen UAE influence as well as Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries, who provided Hemeti with equipment early in the war.
But Sudan wasn’t the only nation that was irked by the IGAD meeting. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed did not attend, saying it clashed with “a prior engagement.” But he did arrive in Kampala one day after, on Jan. 19, to attend the Non-Aligned Movement summit. He has not responded to IGAD’s directive regarding his country’s recent agreement with Somaliland.
The unrecognized territory of Somaliland, which is located in northwestern Somalia, signed a provisional deal on Jan. 1 to lease naval and Red Sea port access to Ethiopia for 50 years in exchange for Addis Ababa recognizing Somaliland’s sovereignty. In response, the Somali government recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia and lambasted the deal as a “hostile move” and a breach of Somalia’s “territorial integrity.”
Ahead of IGAD’s meeting, Somalia rejected any discussions with Addis Ababa over the port deal. “There is no space for mediation unless Ethiopia retracts its illegal MOU [memorandum of understanding] and reaffirms the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia,” the country’s foreign ministry said in a statement Thursday.
U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Mike Hammer—who attended IGAD as an observer along with representatives from the European Union, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey—said the port pact threatened to undermine efforts to combat militants linked to al Qaeda in Somalia.
“We have already seen troubling indications that al-Shabaab is using the MOU to generate new recruits,” he told IGAD delegates.
The UAE could again be the major player behind the scenes. The UAE provided extensive military support to Ethiopia during its recent war against rebels in the Tigray region and is likely to unofficially support Addis Ababa’s deal. Emirati-based multinational DP World has upgraded Somaliland’s Berbera Port since it won a 30-year concession to run it in 2016 despite objections from Somalia.
Since Abiy has presented access to the Red Sea as an existential issue for his country’s economy, it is difficult to see how regional leaders could dissuade him. But it is unlikely that the dispute will escalate into full-blown conflict, given the fragility of both states; Mogadishu is dealing with al-Shabab insurgents while Addis Ababa has just emerged from a devastating civil war. Somalia is also no match for Ethiopia’s military strength, and all of the region’s leaders currently have far more on their plate in Sudan.