Thursday August 22, 2024
Ethiopian troops, part of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), are honored during a medal award ceremony in Beledweyn on August 23, 2003. CREDIT/ ATMIS
Mogadishu (HOL) — Ethiopia's ongoing military presence in Somalia may soon breach international law if Somalia follows through on its decision to exclude Ethiopian forces from future peacekeeping missions, according to legal experts.
Abdullahi Mohamed Abdullahi, an international and maritime law expert, told the BBC that "there is no legal justification for Ethiopian troops to remain in Somali territory" once the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) ends, adding that such actions would infringe on Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity under international law.
In June, Somalia's National Security Advisor, Hussein Moalim, declared that all Ethiopian troops must leave the country by the end of 2024, coinciding with the expiration of the ATMIS mandate. However, some Somali regional states, including Southwest State and Jubaland, have opposed this decision. Mohamud Sayid Adan, Deputy President of Jubaland, argued that an Ethiopian troop withdrawal could create a security vacuum that Al-Shabaab could exploit, leading to increased instability.
Somalia and Egypt have recently solidified their alliance ahead of the conclusion of ATMIS by signing a defence and security agreement. According to recent reports, Egypt and Djibouti have also pledged considerable support for the upcoming African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and expressed concerns over Ethiopia's actions in Somalia. The defence pact signals deepening military cooperation and illustrates a shift in regional power dynamics.
Ahmed Ali Saki, a researcher and lecturer at the University of Hargeisa, suggested that Ethiopia's stance might also be influenced by concerns over Egypt's growing involvement in Somalia. Ethiopia and Egypt have long been at odds, particularly over issues related to the Nile River, and Ethiopia may view Egypt's support for Somalia as a strategic threat.
In response to these developments, Ethiopia has contended that it is within its right to conduct military operations inside Somalia without seeking permission from Somali authorities. Last week, Nebiyu Tedla, the spokesperson for Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, emphasized this stance in a press briefing and said that Ethiopia would continue to take "necessary actions" to protect its interests against what he described as an "emboldened Al-Shabaab" and other threats.
"Ethiopia will continue to strengthen diplomatic efforts to secure dependable and secure access to and from the sea," Tedla stated, adding, "Nothing can prevent Ethiopia from taking the necessary actions independently. Ethiopia and its regional governments will persist in coordinating with all neighbouring countries. Ethiopia will not permit any opposing forces threatening its interests to arise in Somalia. It will continue to undertake calculated actions to protect its national interests."
Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the "careful selection" of countries contributing troops to the new African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) to avoid rising tensions in the Horn of Africa.
Abdullahi Mohamed Abdullahi argues that such actions could further strain relations between the two countries and lead to international legal challenges. "Ethiopia's continued presence in Somalia, without consent from the Somali government, could be interpreted as a violation of international law, specifically infringing on Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity," he noted.
The potential legal implications of Ethiopia's military actions are rooted in a contentious Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland in January 2024. The agreement grants Ethiopia access to 20 kilometres of the Red Sea coastline in Somaliland in exchange for the possible recognition of Somaliland's independence—a deal that the Somali government has condemned as an illegal violation of its sovereignty.
In a quick and sharp rebuke, Somalia expelled Ethiopia's ambassador, Muqtar Mohamed, and ordered the closure of Ethiopian consulates in Somaliland and Puntland. The Somali government has made it clear that as long as Ethiopia continues to violate its sovereignty, it cannot be considered an ally in advancing security.
Moreover, Somalia has accused Ethiopia of smuggling illegal weapons into its territory, fueling clan conflicts and empowering Al-Shabaab. In July 2024, Somali security forces intercepted two truckloads of illegal weapons near the Ethiopian border, leading to a violent confrontation with local militias. Somali officials insist that these weapons were smuggled from Ethiopia, though Ethiopian authorities have denied any involvement.
Nevertheless, Hussein Moalim insists that Somalia would not accept Ethiopia's participation in any future mission that might replace ATMIS, citing the strained relations between the two nations.
In recent months, Ethiopia has conducted several unauthorized military incursions into Somalia, further straining relations. In June 2024, Ethiopian troops crossed into Somalia's Hiiraan region without official permission, raising alarm among local populations and Somali officials. The foray marked the second time in a month that Ethiopian forces had entered the area, prompting concerns about Ethiopia's intentions and its disregard for Somali sovereignty.
These incursions have heightened tensions. Somalia perceives the Ethiopian military's movements as part of a broader strategy to maintain a presence in Somalia despite the impending expiration of the ATMIS mandate. Residents in affected areas have expressed significant anxiety over the presence of large numbers of Ethiopian soldiers, particularly in the absence of official communication from the Somali government or regional administrations.
Efforts to resolve the growing tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia through diplomatic channels have so far been unsuccessful. Turkey, acting as a mediator, brokered two rounds of negotiations this summer, but both ended without resolution. The primary sticking point has been Ethiopia's refusal to annul the MoU with Somaliland. A third round of talks is scheduled for September 17, with hopes to prevent further escalations.