Saturday August 3, 2024
A map of Africa showcasing the major airlines operating across the continent, including Ethiopian Airlines, Kenya Airways, South African Airways, and many others.
Mogadishu (HOL) — Africa's aviation sector is poised for significant growth, driven by high demand for direct flights from major African cities to global hubs. Despite the continent's booming population and strategic location, many routes remain unserved, representing untapped potential for substantial growth. A recent Airbus study highlights nine of the top 15 unserved routes originating or ending in West Africa, including Lagos-New York, Abuja-Nairobi, and Dakar-Libreville.
The Airbus report, "Exploring the Horizons: A Study of Unserved Air Routes to, from, and within Africa," indicates that West Africa holds immense potential for aviation expansion. Despite the booming population and strategic location, the region's connectivity remains limited. As of the IATA summer 2024, only two routes connected Nigeria with North America, both operated by non-Nigerian airlines: Delta Air Lines' Lagos-Atlanta and United Airlines' Lagos-Washington. The entire West African region has just three North American entry points: Atlanta, New York, and Washington.
Beyond West Africa, other high-potential unserved routes include Cape Town-Lagos, Johannesburg-Mumbai, and Nairobi-Washington. These routes, driven by strong demand for direct intercontinental flights, could significantly reduce passenger travel times and costs.
The African Airlines Association projects that African airlines will surpass 100 million passengers for the first time in 2025. Airbus anticipates a 4.1% annual growth in air traffic over the next 20 years, requiring 1,180 new aircraft by 2043. Ethiopian Airlines is leading regional expansion efforts, aiming for a 30% increase in passenger numbers by mid-2024. International carriers, such as AirAsia, are also expanding their African routes, with a direct route to Kuala Lumpur launching in November 2024.
Intra-continental routes, such as Cape Town-Lagos and Dakar-Libreville, show promise despite lower traffic numbers. Establishing visa-free travel across Africa is crucial to unlocking the full potential of these routes. As of 2022, only 27% of African routes allowed visa-free travel for Africans, indicating a significant area for improvement. Alan Hirsch, a research fellow at the New South Institute, stresses the need for regularizing freer movement of people across African borders, aligning with the African Union's Agenda 2063.
| | In-Depth Route Analysis: Lagos-New York: Traffic between Lagos and New York has grown at a CAGR of 2.4% from 2015 to 2019. Despite the absence of a non-stop service since October 2022, the route could quickly regain traffic if reintroduced. Delta Air Lines plans to restart operations in December 2024, initially offering seven weekly flights during peak season, reducing to three weekly flights in mid-January 2025. Lagos-Toronto: This route saw a notable CAGR of 12.8% between 2015 and 2019. While traffic levels have surpassed pre-pandemic figures, the route faces challenges such as asymmetric traffic volumes. No non-stop flights have historically operated between the two cities. Lagos-Houston: Known for its significant Nigerian diaspora and oil industry connections, this route previously operated under Continental Airlines and United Airlines until mid-2016. Traffic has remained stable, and the route could sustain three weekly flights with a widebody aircraft. Harare-London: This route holds significant potential due to high O&D traffic levels, primarily driven by tourism and VFR traffic. British Airways and Air Zimbabwe previously operated non-stop flights until 2012. The route could support six weekly flights with a 250-seat aircraft or five weekly with a 280-330 seat aircraft. Johannesburg-Mumbai: Currently, no non-stop service connects Southern Africa with India, despite substantial O&D traffic. The route faces challenges such as Johannesburg's "hot and high" airport conditions and high fuel costs. It could sustain six weekly flights with a 250-seat aircraft or five weekly with a 280-330 seat aircraft. Entebbe-London: This route shows strong recovery from the pandemic, with traffic levels surpassing pre-pandemic figures by 17%. Uganda Airlines is well-positioned to reintroduce the non-stop service using their A330-800s, potentially operating five weekly flights. Cape Town-Brussels: Traffic between these cities has grown significantly, with Cape Town accounting for 48% of non-directional O&D traffic between South Africa and Belgium. The route could support four weekly flights with a 250-seat aircraft or three weekly with a 280-330 seat aircraft. Durban-London: British Airways operated this route from late 2018 until the pandemic. Despite current low traffic levels, the route could become viable with four weekly flights using a 250-seat aircraft. Nairobi-Washington: Driven by strong demand, this route could see high potential for direct flights, significantly reducing travel time for passengers currently relying on connecting flights.
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