Hassan Istiila
Monday October 2, 2023
Mogadishu (HOL) - Somalia, the fragile Horn of Africa nation that narrowly averted famine last year is now bracing for an unusual climatic twist, with the threat of wetter-than-usual rainfall. Despite grappling with climate crises triggered by counterterrorism operations, persistent drought, and inter-clan conflicts, the nation's woes continue as the El Niño phenomenon looms large.
The national multi-hazard early warning center in Somalia has issued a stark warning, indicating that El Niño is likely to bring heavy rainfall during the rainy season between October and December. In response, government agencies have intensified their efforts to prepare for the impending deluge.
However, criticism has arisen over the government's lack of a comprehensive plan to disseminate these crucial warnings to remote areas and internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, particularly in the capital city. Mayor of Mogadishu, Yusuf Hussein Jima'ale, conceded that a recent 40-minute downpour had already taken a toll on the city's residents and infrastructure.
To observe the efforts of people's readiness, I recently visited the Rabb Yassir IDP camp in the Garasbaley neighbourhood on the outskirts of Mogadishu. Here, I spoke to several people about their preparedness for the El Niño rains, which could potentially result in devastating floods. Surprisingly, many residents desired rains to relieve scorching heat but admitted to being uninformed about the government's warnings.
Hawo Ahmed, a 38-year-old mother, revealed that she had never heard of El Niño or the government's warnings. "Before I prepare, We want someone to explain what El Niño is to us," she said. These residents, much like Hawo, yearn for more information and guidance.
"The drought in our area has already displaced us, and now we fear heavy rains, which could once again endanger our lives. Our daily routine involves sitting outside the camp all day because our homes are unbearably hot. We pray for rain, but if it pours for hours, we cannot endure it," she added.
Aden Mohamed, a father of three, has experienced heavy rains that destroyed their homes, disrupting their daily lives and livelihoods. With their families dependent on them for sustenance, IDPs like Aden are left in a precarious situation. "We urge the government to monitor our situation if heavy rains arrive closely. We have many children, and we do not know where to go or how to prepare for El Niño," he stressed.
According to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), there is an alarmingly high 80% probability of experiencing wetter-than-usual rainfall in southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia.
Dr. Guleid Artan, Director of ICPAC, underscored that Eastern Africa is now in the grip of El Niño conditions, synonymous with wetter weather from October to December. He urged governments and disaster management agencies to take all necessary measures to safeguard lives and livelihoods.
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) director, Dr Guleid Artan, urged the governments and disaster management agencies to take all necessary measures to save lives and livelihoods.
In a bid to raise awareness and readiness for the impending rains, the Commissioner of the Somali Disaster Management Agency-SoDMA, Mohamud Moalim Abdulle, convened an urgent meeting in Mogadishu, which was attended by members of civil society, religious leaders, university unions, banks, the Chamber of Commerce, and other officials. They discussed intensifying efforts to disseminate information about the El Niño rains and prepare for the impending torrential rains across the country.
Last May, floods caused almost a quarter of a million people to flee their homes after the Shabelle River in central Somalia broke its banks and submerged the town of Beledweyne. The last El Niño event in 2015/16 resulted in torrential rains, leading to landslides, flash floods, and building collapses.
Somalia faces an extreme and persistent drought, affecting up to 90 percent of its territory and 7.8 million people. In 2023, the drought, conflict, and flooding caused 912,000 people to be displaced within the country.