Friday June 2, 2023
Mogadishu (HOL) - An international cohort known as the Security Partners of Somalia is reportedly readying for a critical meeting scheduled to take place in Doha next week. The collective, comprising the United States, United Kingdom, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, previously convened in Washington in March to discuss Somalia's state-building endeavours.
Leading the security talks in Doha is Qatar's special envoy for mediation from the foreign ministry, Mutlaq bin Majed Al Qahtani. The expected high-profile attendees include a plethora of global diplomats such as the Somalia's State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ali Mohamed Omar (Ali Balad), Mary Catherine "Molly" Phee, US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, and Elif Comoglu Ulgen, Turkish Foreign Ministry's Deputy Director for East Africa. This power meeting aims to navigate the choppy waters of Somalia's shifting political landscape and manage the implications of international interference.
The backdrop of this meeting, however, is a tangled web of political alliances, rivalries, and interests. Qatar had maintained a strong relationship with the former Somali president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, also known as Farmajo, from 2017 to 2022. This alliance was fueled by Fahad Yasin Haji Dahir, a former Al Jazeera journalist turned political ally of Farmajo, who later ascended to the post of intelligence chief.
Significantly, in May 2023, Somalia's political terrain experienced a seismic shift when the country's parliament elected Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as president for a second term. Interestingly, the UAE is believed to have backed President Mohamud in his political ascendancy.
This evolving scenario could be confounded by the troubled relationship between the UAE and Qatar, marked by a four-year-long trade blockade initiated by the Emir of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed Bin Zayed al-Nahyane. Such discord among the Security Partners of Somalia adds an intricate layer of complexity to the upcoming Doha meeting, with Somalia increasingly becoming a geopolitical battlefield for Persian Gulf monarchies such as the UAE and Qatar.
The Somali military has been engaged in a significant offensive against Al-Shabaab militants in southern and central Somalia since last summer, when the government declared a "total war" on the group. However, a surge in political violence, operational setbacks, and internal disputes have hindered these counter-insurgency efforts. Over the past months, escalating political violence has seen over 250 events and almost 700 reported fatalities. The Lower Shabelle and Banadir regions have borne the brunt of the violence, with al-Shabaab militants launching attacks on both security forces and civilians.
Further complicating the situation are political disputes at the local level and inconsistent support from regional partners. The proposed transfer of authority for local taxes sparked tensions between local leaders, leading to a withdrawal of support from Hawadle clan militias. Additionally, pledges of additional troops by Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti have yet to materialize, further impeding counter-insurgency operations.