Strategy Page
Sunday, February 24, 2013
The Somali pirates continue to
have a hard time. They have not captured a ship in nine months and only
captured five last year compared to 25 in 2011 and 27 in 2010. The main
reason for this lack of success is improved security (including armed
guards) aboard the large commercial ships the pirates seek out and more
aggressive methods used by the anti-piracy patrol.
Pirate mother ships
are almost always caught and destroyed if they try to take pirates far
from the Somali coast. Currently the pirates are holding four ships and
108 sailors. Most of the pirate gangs have shut down, but several are
still trying to find a solution to the current obstacles. It is still
dangerous to take a ship near the Somali coast.
The defeat of al Shabaab in the last year has led several
hundred foreign terrorists, who had earlier fled from defeat in
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and elsewhere, to leave the country. Many
are showing up in Yemen and Kenya, two places that are easy to reach.
You can just walk across the lightly guarded Kenyan border and smugglers
regularly, and largely successfully, move people from Somalia to Yemen.
Yemen defeated an al Qaeda insurrection last year but the Islamic
radicals sill have sanctuaries in some remote villages. About 11 percent
of 43 million Kenyans are Moslem, and most live in coastal cities like
Mombasa (where about a third of the population is Moslem). Most of those
Moslems are ethnic Somalis and many have been in Kenya for generations.
But several hundred thousand are Arabs. Inside Somalia, many of the al
Shabaab deserters are going back to their clans and rejoining the clan
militia. While some of these men were disillusioned with al Shabaab,
many were not and are just biding their time, waiting for another
opportunity to join an Islamic radical group. Some of these deserters,
including those who joined the army as part of their rehabilitation, are
now secretly carrying out or supporting terrorist attacks. Some of
these men are still willing to be suicide bombers. Not a lot, but
several times a month al Shabaab suicide bombers are in action, a
reminder that al Shabaab is defeated but not destroyed. This has forced
the Somali Army to become more accurate in screening al Shabaab
deserters, especially those willing to join the military.
Few of the al Shabaab men went off to Mali, mainly because it
is on the other side of the continent and expensive to reach from
Somalia.
In the last year Kenya has suffered dozens of terror attacks
by Somalis angry about Kenyan peacekeepers going into Somalia (to
suppress al Shabaab attacks on northern Kenya). Kenya recently responded
by ordering all Somalis out of the cities and forcing them to either
return to Somalia (which many are doing) or to the Dadaab refugee camp
(a much less popular destination). To speed this process the police have
(unofficially) been permitted to harass, extort and plunder Somalis who
do not leave. The government is planning to round up those Somalis who
still refuse to leave and forcibly move them to the Somali border or
Dadaab. That camp is itself being emptied out much to the consternation
of foreign aid groups, who still do not feel safe operating in Somalia
(where bandits and warlords see foreign aid workers are a source of
plunder, not aid).
A recent investigation in Kenya revealed that Somalis had
quietly moved over two billion dollars into Kenya over the last few
years. That’s a lot of money for Kenya, a country with a GDP of only $40
billion. This new Somali money was largely used outside the banking
system, for loans and other transactions that left no official records.
Some of this money is known to have gone to al Shabaab (captured records
in Somalia revealed this) and there is no easy way to stop that. Kenya
is trying to round up and expel illegal Somali immigrants, but many of
the wealthiest Somalis in Kenya have legal residency.
February 23, 2013: Outside Kismayo two pro-government militias
fought each other, leaving at least 11 dead. These clan militias are at
odds over who should get what in Kismayo. Even before al Shabaab seized
Kismayo, the second largest port in the country, in 2009 rival clans
fought to see who would control the docks area, and collecting fees for
ships and trucks using that area.
February 21, 2013: The army executed three of its soldiers for
murder. This is the traditional Somali warlord method of dealing with
serious misbehavior by subordinates. The three were accused of murder.
Rape and robbery are also common among Somali troops, but these are
usually handled by tossing the offenders out of the military.
Seven people were shot dead in a Kenyan mosque near the Somali
border and the Dadaab refugee camp. It’s unclear if this was connected
with al Shabaab, a clan feud or some criminal dispute.
February 20, 2013: For the first time in nearly a decade there
was a public performance of musicians in Mogadishu. Al Shabaab and
other Islamic conservatives had forbidden musical as un-Islamic and
imposed the death sentence on many violators. Before that, the city was
too dangerous for such public gatherings.
February 18, 2013: The government offered a $50,000 rewards
for information leading to the conviction of those killing journalists.
One journalist has been killed this year, 18 were killed last year and
45 have been murdered since 2007. The likely suspects are al Shabaab
and various political and clan leaders who do not like to see their
misbehavior publicized and criticized.
February 16, 2013: In Somaliland the son of a prominent
politician was arrested on terrorism charges. The prisoner had grown up
in Finland, where he was apparently radicalized. Foreign intelligence
agencies provided the proof and Somaliland investigators verified this
and made the arrests. The terrorist attacks had taken place in
neighboring Puntland. Islamic terrorists take advantage of bad relations
(an unresolved border dispute) between the two statelets, and the
subsequent lack of cooperation on terrorism matters, to use Somaliland
as a refuge while planning attacks inside Puntland. Many wealthy Somalis
have sent their families overseas during the last two decades of chaos.
These cheapest destination is Europe, where refugee status and generous
social benefits are available. The adult children are now coming back
to Somalia bringing skills, and sometimes bad habits, with them.
In Mogadishu a car bomb went off in front of a beachside
restaurant, killing a soldier and wounding three civilians. Al Shabaab
was suspected although it may have just been criminals seeking extortion
money.
February 15, 2013: Al Shabaab claims to have killed a missing
Kenyan soldier. Al Shabaab demanded the release of all jailed Moslems in
return for the soldier. Kenya refused. Al Shabaab never proved that
they had the soldier.
February 14, 2013: A senior Moslem cleric was shot dead in a
Puntland mosque. The killer and his accomplice were arrested. Al Shabaab
is suspected.
February 13, 2013: Peacekeeper and government troops cleared
al Shabaab from several towns south of Mogadishu. Al Shabaab still has
hundreds of members living in dozens of villages and towns in central
Somalia. The troops have to move in and drive them out and establish
some government presence to keep them out.
Iran is denying accusations by UN investigators that Iran has
been the source for most illegal weapons being smuggled into Somalia
over the last few years. There is quite a bit of evidence for this, but
Iran accuses the UN of fabricating a case against Iran.
February 11, 2013: In central Somalia an al Shabaab suicide
car bomber attacked a police commander, but only killed himself and four
civilians.