Strategy Page
Saturday, August 17, 2013
With the reduction in al Shabaab
activity in the last year has come an increase in corruption by
government officials, clan leaders and even the AU (African Union)
peacekeepers. The main victims of all this corruption are foreign aid
organizations (who are increasingly giving up and leaving) and Somali
women (who are more likely to be raped).
The most notable aid group
departure is Doctors Without Borders, which has been in Somalia for 22
years and treats over 50,000 patients a month. This outfit is the main
source of medical care in many parts of the country but the medical
staff have become popular kidnapping and robbery victims. The ransom is
shared with clan leaders and government officials and thus the
kidnappers are rarely caught and encouraged to do it again and again.
Aid groups also have a lot of valuable stuff to steal (equipment as well
as the aid itself) and now that it is more peaceful the economy is
thriving and it’s easier to sell your stolen goods. Hospitals have been
attacked and looted, even though wounded terrorists are also brought in
and medical care demanded, or else. Armed robbery has always been a
popular activity in Somalia and with less fighting between each other,
gunmen can now concentrate on economic gain.
The departure of Doctors Without Borders comes at a particularly bad time because of a recent polio outbreak. A
l Shabaab opposition to polio vaccinations led to this new
outbreak of the disease. Some 600,000 children in southern Somalia and
refugee camps in northern Kenya have not been vaccinated, mainly because
of al Shabaab opposition and general chaos. The first case was detected
i
n Kenya three months ago when a Somali child in a refugee camp
came down with it. Five years ago the UN announced that a ten year
effort to eradicate polio (by vaccinating nearly every child under five)
had succeeded and that Somalia was free of the paralyzing (and often
fatal) disease (which can only survive in humans). But to make that
eradication permanent follow-up vaccinations had to be given and al
Shabaab interfered with that. So in the last three months over a hundred
kids in Somalia and Kenyan refugee camps have come down with polio.
Last year there were only 223 cases worldwide.
Polio should have been eliminated entirely by now, but there
has been resistance from Islamic clergy in some countries, who insist
the vaccinations are a Western plot to harm Moslem children. This has
enabled polio to survive in some Moslem countries (especially Nigeria
and Pakistan). The disease also survives in some very corrupt nations,
like Kenya and India, because of the difficulty in getting vaccine to
remote areas and tracking down nomad groups. In response to this latest
outbreak Kenya will carry out more vaccinations in Kenya and help do the
same in dangerous parts of Somalia.
Al Shabaab is still around and keeps trying to make a
comeback. That has been limited because the terrorist organization has
splintered under the government and peacekeeper pressure. Various
factions are fighting each other for overall leadership or simply to
settle personal or ideological disputes. One al Shabaab leader (Ahmed
Godane) appears to be dominant and has been responsible for several
recent attacks. Godane believes in al Qaeda and its goal of global
domination and using maximum violence to achieve victory. His supporters
are hard core and often foreigners. Godane is accused of receiving aid
from Eritrea, which seeks to keep the violence going in Somalia as a way
to hurt their arch-enemy Ethiopia. Godane and his foreign terrorists
are not popular in Somalia and are generally regarded as very violent
bandits. Unfortunately there are still lots of equally violent and
rapacious warlords and clan leaders in Somalia to compete with the
terrorists for popular dislike.
August 14, 2013: Doctors Without Borders announced its
departure from Somalia, which has become too expensive and dangerous to
operate in. Doctors Without Borders has about 1,500 personnel operating
in Somalia, many of them local hires.
August 13, 2013: The government said that a recent major sweep
of Mogadishu had resulted in the arrest of 39 suspected al Shabaab
members and the destruction or crippling of 17 al Shabaab terror cells
operating in the city. Cooperation from the public, who are the main
victims of al Shabaab attacks, was the main reason the soldiers and
police rounded up so many al Shabaab men. Weapons, bomb making materials
and documents were also seized.
August 11, 2013: Officials in Puntland refused to let a
Turkish cargo ship unload its cargo of foreign aid and forced the ship
to leave. This was the result of a feud with the Somali government which
is trying to assert control over Puntland and Somaliland. The Puntland
government is resisting and declaring the Turkish aid ship, which had
permission from the Somali government to unload in Puntland, was part of
this plot.
In Britain details of British aid losses in Somalia made it
into the news. In general, these losses are no secret but specific
details are rarely released. Foreign aid groups have a better record
(compared to government officials) of getting aid to those who need it.
Aid given to local leaders or governments (in Somalia, Puntland or
Somaliland) are more likely to disappear into private bank accounts.
Thus aid groups get a lot of the government aid and are increasingly the
target of corrupt local officials.
August 9, 2013: In Mogadishu an Ethiopian Air Force An-24
transport crash landed and burned. Two of the six man crew survived. The
aircraft was carrying weapons and ammo for AU peacekeepers.
August 7, 2013: Somali troops raided an al Shabaab camp near
the southern city of Afmadow and killed 24 Islamic terrorists, including
three who were definitely foreigners. Over fifty terrorists had been in
the camp and prisoner interrogations and captured documents indicated
that the group was planning some attacks on army checkpoints and bases.
Many weapons and much ammo was captured as well. Two soldiers were
killed in the night attack, which was made possible by information
provided by local civilians. The surviving terrorists are being pursued.
August 6, 2013: In Mogadishu a group of gunmen, believed to be
al Shabaab, attacked the home of a local official and fatally wounded
him. One of the security guards was also wounded and the attackers were
driven off. Al Shabaab does this sort of thing to encourage officials to
cooperate when asked (especially when the request is sweetened with a
bribe).
August 5, 2013: In Mogadishu some al Shabaab men fired five
mortar shells into a residential neighborhood and threw several grenades
in another area. The terrorists fled police and soldiers responding to
the explosions and later boasted (via the Internet) that this was the
first of many attacks. This prompted the government to plan a large
sweep of the city to find the terrorists. The al Shabaab activity had
been generating a lot of tips from civilians.
Puntland declared that it had cut all diplomatic ties with
Somalia because of Somali efforts to force Puntland to give up its
independence and once more become part of Somalia. The Puntland
government is representative of the local clans and the locals consider
itself less corrupt and more efficient that the national “Somalia”
government down south.
August 4, 2013: In the central Somalia town of Baidoa a group
of al Shabaab fired on a bus station, wounding ten people and then fled
the soldiers who responded.