Strategy Page
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Thousands of residents of
Kismayo have fled the city in the last week, fearing that an AU led
assault on the city is imminent.
Al Shabaab apparently does not believe
it can hold onto Kismayo, as many of its best fighters have been sent to
new camps in the jungles of southwest Somalia (on the Kenyan border),
or the mountains of the northeast (on the Puntland border). Al Shabaab
still attracts recruits, because of their history of fighting corruption
and avoiding clan-based feuds. Both of these curses have long prevented
good government in Somalia, and still do so. The new government is as
corrupt as ever and tribal frictions still impede good government.
Al Shabaab has made itself unpopular with most Somalis because
of the strict interpretation of Islam (no music, video, booze, jobs for
women or shaving for men) and forcing it on Somalis. Another liability
was the use of foreign Islamic fanatics (mostly al Qaeda men). Somalis
don't like being ordered around by foreigners, especially self-righteous
religious bigots telling people how to live, and attacking those who
resist. Al Shabaab made a big mistake when they merged with al Qaeda and
joined the fight to turn the entire planet into a religious
dictatorship. Global domination has never been high on the average
Somalis' wish list. Taking Kismayo will be easy compared to destroying
the remaining al Shabaab groups in the southwest and northeast.
The AU has brought in more helicopters and warships for the
assault on Kismayo, which is expected to take place within a week. Most
of the fighting is expected to be done by Kenyan troops.
September 3, 2012: In Kenya (Mombassa) a radical Islamic
cleric (Abubaker Shariff Ahmed) was arrested and charged with inciting
violence after the murder of another radical cleric last week. Ahmed
called for Kenyan Moslems (many of whom are ethnic Somalis) to attack
the police (three died in subsequent violence) and Christian churches
(several were damaged). About 11 percent of 43 million Kenyans are
Moslem, and most live in coastal cities like Mombasa (where about a
third of the population is Moslem).
September 2, 2012: After two days of fighting AU and Somali
forces captured the fortified town of Mido, which is 86 kilometers from
the port of Kismayo. Al Shabaab suffered about a hundred casualties
trying to defend Mido and most survivors fled towards Kismayo.
Helicopter gunships attacked the fleeing al Shabaab men, increasing
their total casualties for the Mido battle to over 200, with at least 70
killed. AU losses (including Kenya, whose troops are now part of the AU
peacekeeping force) were about fifty.
September 1, 2012: Al Shabaab released a video of their
fighters dragging the bodies of four dead AU soldiers through the city
streets behind a vehicle.
In Puntland, a pirate commander killed a Syrian sailor and
wounded another to try and speed up ransom negotiations for an Egyptian
cargo ship that was seized 21 months ago while carrying 26,000 tons of
coal. Last June the 19 man crew and their pirate guards fled the ship
when a fire broke out in the galley. Some pirates put the fire out, but
there was extensive damage to the bridge and living quarters. Somali
pirates are still holding 176 hostages, some of them for over 30 months
(one crew is from a ship whose owner has, in effect, abandoned the ship
and its crew).
August 28, 2012: In Mogadishu, the newly elected parliament elected a former labor minister as speaker of the parliament.
August 27, 2012: In Mombasa, Kenya unknown gunmen fired on a
car carrying Islamic radical cleric Aboud Rogo Mohammed, killing him.
Popularly known as "Rogo", he was publicly accused by the United States
and Kenya of supporting al Shabaab and aiding recruiting and fund
raising for the Islamic terrorists. A UN report a month earlier had
documented Rogo's assistance for al Shabaab. Neither Rogo nor other
Kenyan Islamic radical clerics did anything that would enable police to
arrest and hold them for long. But Rogo did visit Somalia frequently and
was often seen meeting with al Shabaab leaders. The death of Rogo and
several other outspoken Kenyan supporters of al Shabaab is generally
believed (especially by Kenyan Moslems) to be the work of illegal police
death squads. There is a great deal of animosity between Christian and
Moslem Kenyans. This goes beyond the usual Moslem hostility and violence
towards infidels (non-Moslems). For centuries Moslems ran the coastal
cities of Kenya, but then the British showed up in the 19th century and converted most of the pagan Kenyans to Christianity during the early 20th
century. The British then established schools for these new Christians
and favored Christians for jobs in the colonial government. When the
British left in 1963 (after over a decade of anti-colonial violence) the
Christian majority ran the country, must to the dismay of the Moslem
minority.
AU peacekeepers and Somali troops drove al Shabaab gunmen out
of the port town of Marka, which is 70 kilometers south of Mogadishu.
The al Shabaab men in this town provided a base for al Shabaab
terrorists carrying out attacks in Mogadishu.
August 26, 2012: In Nairobi, Kenya someone threw a grenade into a church, killing one person and wounding a dozen.