By Boniface Ongeri
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
In the three by elections held last month, Narc Kenya sprung a surprise on PNU and ODM to win Juja and Makadara.
The upcoming by-election in Wajir South Constituency on October 13 will offer another chance to parties to extend their fight, after the battle for September by-elections.
However, ODM is missing in the action after it failed to field a candidate.
The seat fell vacant after the courts nullified the elections of Abdirahman Hassan Ali over irregularities in a petition.
Potential candidates are exuding confidence at the prospect of becoming the next area representative in the tenth parliament.
Campaigns in high gear
Seven candidates including Ali (Kanu) and Muhummed Mohamud Siraj (ODM-K), the petitioner, have been cleared to vie for the seat.
However, one of the candidate Omar Ibrahim Hanshi, who was to contest on a Mkenya Solidarity Movement Party has withdrawn from the race barely a week after being cleared by the Interim Independent Electoral Commission (IIEC).
The other candidates include Abdullahi Bulale (Narc), Ahmed Ali Mukhtar (National Agenda Party of Kenya) and Abdirizak Mohammed Ibrahim (Liberal Party of Kenya).
The ODM party did not field a candidate, ostensibly to support the Narc candidate. Narc is closely affiliated to ODM.
Official campaigns kicked off last Wednesday and candidates have gone flat out in search of votes.
The nullification of Ali’s election effectively meant that no one has ever served two consecutive terms or made a parliamentary comeback in this remote constituency.
No MP has broken the one term jinx, unless Abdirahaman wins in the subsequent by-election.
It remains to be seen how ODM-Kenya party leader, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, and Kanu leader Uhuru Kenyatrta will face it off in support of their respective candidates in the race, given they are in a loose PNU alliance.
In the September 20 by-elections, the two had joined forces to campaign for the Juja PNU candidate George Thuo, who unfortunately lost to Narc-Kenya’s William Kabogo. Wajir South constituency has over time proved to have the most intricate and unpredictable outcome in North Eastern Province’s 11 constituencies. For starters, MPs who have been elected have done so with the narrowest of vote margins.
Issue based politics
Potential candidates eyeing the seats know that it takes more than wit to triumph. Here every single vote counts. The simple arithmetic often fronted around is that anyone who can master his clan to rally behind him or her is home and dry, as he will rely on votes from clans that are not fronting a candidate.
But as it has proved often, candidates from the same clan have stood against each other, thus upsetting their chances.
That is the scenario facing Ali who hails from the same sub clan as Bulale.
There are four sub clans of the larger Ogaden clan in the constituency. They include Mohammed Suber, Makabul, Geri and Bagheri. None of the sub clans has a clear majority or provides a swing vote. And none has ever bowed down in favour of another.
The constituency has 23, 000 registered voters as per last referendum.
As a result issues based politics will take a back seat as clanism take center stage.
While contestants would want people to believe that they are articulating issues the battle line would be drawn between the clans in the area.
The deposed MP hails from the Mohammed Zuber sub clan while Sirat is a Bagher.
Some of those who contested against Abdirahaman have moved on to other things, but Sirat and Abdirahaman will renew their rivalry.
Those who contested in the last polls include former North Eastern Province PC Mohammud Saleh, Abdirashid Dubow Ogle, Dr Abdi Arale, Ahmed Sheikh Farah, Ibrahim Mohammed Abdille, Mohammed Bundid, and Abdullahi Mohammed Bulale Abdullahi.
In the discredited election, Abdirahaman was declared the winner with 4, 444 while Sirat who contested on an ODM-Kenya ticket got 4, 017 votes.
Ali has been fronting his development record, pleading for the remaining time to clear what he started, while Sirat has been banking on some sympathy votes. Nominated MP Mohammed Affey who hails from the area has asked resident to vote for Sirat to show gratitude for ODM-K that nominated him to parliament in last General Election.
The constituency borders anarchic Somalia Somalia on its eastern side. It is sandwiched between Wajir East, Wajir West and Lagdera Constituencies.
Sparsely Populated
At 22, 000 square kilometers, it is nearly twice the size of Wajir West constituency. Simply put it is the size of Central and Nyanza provinces put together but with a sparse population.
In the lead-up to last year’s General election the constituency became a fully-fledged District, headquartered at Habaswein. Recently while President Kibaki was campaigning for the proposed Cponstitution he carved out another District from the constituency whose headquarters is yet to be established.
Habaswein, which is on the Wajir-Garissa road, is a fast growing town boosted by the installation of generator run power plant.
The seasonal swamp, called Lorein, which experts say has a potential to produce rice for commercial purposes, cuts across the constituency almost dividing it into equal halves.
Source: Standard