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Monday September 9, 2024
By Abdinasir M Abdi (Magan)
Somalia's narrative spans thirty years of governance and order, contrasting with over thirty years of civil unrest and fragility. Somalia is one the countries that gained independence in the third quarter of the 20th century- this marked the Cold War era where Second World War victories shaped a new world order, making market-centered economy policies that were highly sparred by the liberal societies and the communist world. In this period, with a lack of political maturity, Somalia's leaders struggle to establish a comprehensive or sophisticated foreign policy, focusing on national interests, despite pledging from the two block powers of aid and debts to boost economic growth and prosperity. Siyad Barre's administration could not handle the economic challenges resulting from internal fragility and external pressures, primarily from global powers. In 1991, anti-government rebels ousted the regime but failed to establish a democratic government, leading to a prolonged civil war and doubling Somalia's debt interest.
Over thirty years of Somalia's lack of a functioning government, the country's actual debt and the required doubled interest repayments exceeded five billion dollars. In 1991, Somalia collapsed, having debt from different global creditors. The decade marked a dramatic shift in global affairs, ending the Cold War and bipolar society, and beginning the US as the sole global superpower. Taking advantage of this sole power, the US initiated new programs reforming global economic order by utilizing the instruments of international organizations—the World Bank and the Internal Monitory Fund (IMF). Thus, in 1996, both institutions (the IMF and the World Bank) launched the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, which aimed to deal with poor countries with heavy and unmanageable debts and primarily for two procedures: to ensure compliance with certain policies and reforms and to accelerate the debt relief process for highly indebted countries through a collaboration with financial global institutions and creditors under the HIPC initiative.
In the context of Somalia’s debt relief process, in 2018, an assessment of debt management capacity was done by the World Bank and the International Development Association (IDA), and Somali experts produced a preliminary report indicating that Somalia is eligible for assistance under the HIEPC initiative. Then the Somali government took a series of steps and reforms aimed at completing the necessary qualifications for decision-point. Establishing a satisfactory track record of strong policy performance under IMF- and World Bank-supported programs was one of the key steps; clearing arrears to the financial institutions (IMF, WB, and ADB); and preparing a poverty reduction strategy are among the key necessary steps required.
SOMALIA’S POST-HIPC: INSIGHTS AND STRATEGIES
The state of the Philippines in Asia was once labeled “the sick man in Asia." Likewise, Somalia in East Africa can be labeled a “Hapless State in Africa—dalkii ayaandaradda ee qaaradda Afrika" Somalia suffered weak institutions, conflicts, droughts and hunger, terrorism, and other issues. Conversely, though, the Somali people had a great deal of desire to make a change, which could translate into new hopes and ambitions. At this point, Somalia in its era of POST-HIPC has a huge ambition to move the country forward. A brief history: in 2014, the Central Government crafted its first National Development Plan (the first NDP since 1986) with a two-year fiscal period and foundations laid down by the New Deal Compact, an initiative collaborated by the first FGS and international partners. This was followed by the NDP-8, which has also a fiscal period of three years. NDP-8, aimed at articulating FGS priorities, resource allocation and management, and partner engagement, is centered on the vision of poverty alleviation, economic revival, and social transformation. In 2020, the FGS developed a comprehensive NDP-9 with four-year fiscal periods and five wide-ranging pillars. Within this period (2020-2024), the FGS, collaborating with its international partners, achieved tremendous targets, including debt relief and a weapons embargo lifted, Somalia’s presence in international spheres became apparent, Al-Shabaab has been defeated in many areas of south and central Somalia, and Somalia fulfilled the membership of the East African Community market, International Oil Companies (OIC) acknowledged to the readiness of Somalia’s hydrocarbon sector, and others.
At this crucial moment, the leaders embodied a new approach to developmentthe developmental architecture: the National Transformation Plan (NTP). This model seems fit for Somalia’s post-HIPC era, which can be referred to as “a new Somalia” where no debts at all, has an opportunity to a huge market of close to three hundred million people, prospering huge hydrocarbon resources, enjoying a hugely demanding livestock market, reviving businesses and commercial banks, a country of full human resources. A million-dollar question is how Somalia can utilize and turn these opportunistic moments ahead into a marvelous development.
After thirty years of ups and downs, Somalia is at a critical conjuncture; its elites, politicians, and leaders can either go into a prosperous future or hopeless roads into hell. This article highlights three priorities or strategies that could humanize the interest of our country, and here are the key points presented to the Somali elites, leaders, and academicians.
First, sixty years of having state recognition, Somalis failed to build good trust among themselves; thus, trust building is a major assignment to all Somalis in the republic, particularly to the top leaders. Today’s leaders can be the founding fathers of the new Somalia, building foundations of state institutions, a unified and cohesive society, and promoting peace and state-building principles. What can serve as a legacy for today's leaders is the re-establishment of a common Somali identity, which will foster a constructive political culture, long-term aspirations for future generations, and reasonable political stances in the interest of state survival in this fragile world.
The second strategy relates to the adversities that Somalia faces at these life-threatening moments, including poverty, extremism, and trade imbalance; this point further addresses prioritizing ways to lower the mentioned challenges. This paper calls on the Federal Government and Federal Member States (FMS) to consider economic and human capital investment initiatives, not loans for unproductive alternatives. As Somalia’s national strategies are centered on the poverty reduction agenda, considering the latest poverty report that shows over fifty percent of the population lives below the poverty line requires punitive commitment.
Likewise, terrorism flourishes in Somalia, recent reports indicate that the Al-Shabab fatalities cause a huge percentage of deaths; extortion of money, and general punishment of people using explosions and defamation; all these burdens require a sophisticated approach and policies to removing terrorism in Somalia. Somalia's trade balance figures are in disastrous deficit, and this challenge necessitates leaders to exercise the development of effective strategies for the development of human capital and economics to lessen the trade imbalance.
The third strategy involves balancing global and regional powers' demands. Given the continued criticality of global political instability, this paper advocates pursuing this strategy by stitching with state interest. Somalia failed to set up a stable foreign policy and calculate global power shifts and survival ways in the Cold War era. This article recommends building the country’s Foreign Policy Analysts (FPA Board) for advising on setting leaders, building foreign policy agendas, and identifying trends, threats, and opportunities in the international spheres.
Hamze Abdi Barre, the prime minister of Somalia, has recently expressed his thoughts and sentiments about the Israel-Palestine conflict, supporting Hamas, and so forth. These days, many foreign policy analysts revealed their backlashes on Hamze’s bathetic words. Somalia is a member of the international community and has a voice in global affairs, but politics has no place on emotions and rather firmly articulates the state's interests. Sticking to one country, or group, inclining one block in the global powers can have long-term consequences for one country’s survival; calculations based on interest are what matter here. Citizens are looking for leaders who can balance our state interests with the conflicting demands of the Middle East and the geopolitics of East Africa. Nobody wants to have a country that is a playfield of global powers like Ukraine, Yemen, and other countries.
Apart from the International Institutions, actors involved in Somalia’s ups and downs moments are among the global powers mainly Veto Powers, Middle Eastern Countries, and Frontline or Neighboring Countries. These complex interests with Somalia's Strategic position in East Africa and the geopolitics of the world make it necessary to have a special grand strategy on ways of integrating all these demands. The case of ATMIS's withdrawal and replacing the new mission “African Union Stabilization in Somalia (AUSSOM) in the coming year 2025 raises mind-blowing questions: how does the new mission differ from ATMIS or AMISOM? Which countries are supposed to be included? Which countries are to be excluded? Will the new mission remain just for peacekeeping, not making? What is the consequence of the new mission in terms of the geopolitics of East Africa? All require rational answers.
In sum, Somalia is in critical conjunction; fragmentation is the biggest burden of the Somali Republic in the twenty-first century. The country cannot move forward and reform the big agendas ahead without considering fundamental matters related to the political consensus and creation of a common identity among the people in the republic. First things first, Uniformed Custom Taxations (UCT), constitutional amendments, building strong Somali National Arms (SNA), power and resource sharing discussions, and initiatives on mega projects—all these require holistic work of reconciling Somali people in the republic.
Abdinasir M Abdi (Magan)
Somali Scholar in the Political Field
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+252616799971