Monday September 9, 2024
Mogadishu (HOL) — Growing military cooperation between Somalia and Egypt is heightening tensions in the Horn of Africa as the two nations align to counter Ethiopia's influence. As Egypt sends troops and arms to Mogadishu, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has vowed to defend his country's territorial integrity amid fears of an escalation in regional hostilities.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed issued a warning during Ethiopia's Sovereignty Day celebrations, declaring that Ethiopia would fiercely defend its sovereignty against any foreign threats. "Ethiopia has never invaded another country, and we will not allow anyone to violate our sovereignty," he said. His comments follow the arrival of two Egyptian C-130 military planes in Mogadishu, which has raised concerns in Addis Ababa over Egypt's expanding influence in Somalia.
Egypt's military presence in Somalia has grown rapidly over the past month, with 1,000 Egyptian soldiers deployed in Mogadishu between August 27 and 29. Egyptian officials also announced plans for further arms transfers, including anti-tank missiles, rocket launchers, and drones, raising concerns of a potential escalation. Egyptian and Somali forces are also scheduled to conduct joint military exercises in September, further solidifying their defence ties. Egyptian officials described these actions as a show of force to protect Somalia, but Ethiopian officials view them as a direct threat to regional stability.
Somalia's federal government is leveraging this alliance to pressure Ethiopia to revoke its port deal with Somaliland, which grants Ethiopia access to Somaliland's ports, giving it a potential lifeline to the Red Sea. Mogadishu has strongly condemned the agreement, calling it a violation of Somalia's sovereignty and threatening to expel Ethiopian forces stationed in Somalia unless the deal is revoked. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, however, remains firm on Ethiopia's right to secure access to the Red Sea, describing it as an "existential issue."
Local factions within Somalia's Jubbaland and South West states, where Ethiopian forces are stationed, have expressed support for Ethiopia's presence. These factions operate independently of the Somali federal government, increasing the risk of internal conflict and a possible proxy war.
The tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt are not new. The two countries have long been at odds over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile. Egypt relies on the Nile for 90% of its water supply and fears the dam will severely reduce its access to this vital resource. Ethiopia, however, sees the dam as essential for its energy independence and national development.
Last week, Egypt petitioned the United Nations to intervene, calling for immediate action to stop Ethiopia from completing the dam. Cairo has consistently framed the GERD as an existential threat, while Ethiopia insists on its right to utilize the Nile's resources for development. This long-standing dispute has only added fuel to the current regional tensions.
The Horn of Africa has long been a flashpoint for geopolitical tensions, and the current dynamics between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt have further exacerbated the situation. With Egypt's influence in Sudan diminished due to the ongoing civil war, Cairo has turned to Somalia as a key partner. This alliance aims to give Egypt a stronger foothold in the region, allowing it to exert more pressure on Ethiopia, particularly over the GERD.