Sunday June 23, 2024
FILE
Mogadishu (HOL) — Somalia's political turmoil and escalating security threats will be under intense scrutiny on Monday when the United Nations Security Council convenes for an open briefing followed by closed consultations. Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia, James Swan, and Special Representative of the AU Commission Chairperson for Somalia, Mohamed El-Amine Souef, will lead the session.
The meeting marks Swan's first briefing since resuming his role in May. He is expected to present the latest political, economic, and security developments in Somalia based on the Secretary-General's June 3 report. Key issues include recent constitutional amendments, escalating tensions with Ethiopia, and the ongoing threat posed by Al-Shabaab.
On March 30, Somalia's Federal Parliament approved significant amendments to the provisional constitution. These changes introduce a one-person, one-vote election system and provide for direct presidential elections, moving away from the traditional clan-based formula. However, these reforms have sparked controversy. Puntland, a semi-autonomous region, announced on March 31 that it would withdraw recognition of the federal government and has refrained from participating in National Consultative Council meetings.
Another major topic will be Somalia's request to terminate UNSOM by the end of its mandate in October. In letters circulated to Council members in May, Somalia called for a swift conclusion of the necessary procedures for this transition. The Council has requested the Secretary-General to engage with the Somali government to determine the modalities and timeline for the transition and provide an update by the end of August.
Adding to Somalia's political complexity are rising tensions with Ethiopia. Following a memorandum of understanding signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland on January 1, Somalia expelled Ethiopia's Ambassador in Mogadishu on April 4 and closed Ethiopian consulates in Garowe and Hargeisa. Somalia's National Security Advisor has called for Ethiopian troops to leave the country by the end of December, coinciding with the planned drawdown of ATMIS. However, this move has faced opposition from Somalia's Jubaland and Southwest states, which rely on Ethiopian forces for security.
The meeting will also address the ongoing security threat posed by Al-Shabaab, a terrorist group affiliated with Al-Qaida. The Secretary-General's report documented a significant increase in civilian casualties due to Al-Shabaab's use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). UNSOM recorded 340 civilian deaths, including 146 fatalities, between January 25 and May 25, marking a 104 percent increase compared to the previous reporting period.
Souef is expected to highlight ATMIS' support for Somali security forces in countering Al-Shabaab and the progress of ATMIS' drawdown process. He will also discuss the ongoing discussions about post-ATMIS security arrangements to prevent any security vacuum.
The African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) recently endorsed the establishment of a new AU-led, UN-authorized mission for Somalia to support the federal government in post-ATMIS security arrangements. This decision follows a technical assessment conducted by the AU's Peace Support Operations Division. The AUPSC has requested the AU Commission to develop financing options for the new mission and submit a concept of operations by the end of July.
As the Council meets on Monday, members are likely to discuss the mandate extension for ATMIS, which is set to expire on June 30. The UK, the penholder on Somalia, has yet to circulate a draft resolution on this matter.