Mogadishu (HOL) — Political violence in Somalia has surged from June 1 to July 26, 2024, with 395 incidents resulting in 1,082 fatalities, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). This marks a 13% rise in violent events and a 31% increase in fatalities compared to the same period last year.
The Lower Shabelle region has seen the most political violence, mainly due to al-Shabaab attacks targeting security forces. However, the Galgaduud region reported the highest number of fatalities at 352, followed by Lower Juba with 265. Battles, explosions, and remote violence events were the most common types of incidents.
The Islamic State (IS) in Somalia has become increasingly active, particularly in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland. Following U.S. airstrikes in late May targeting IS positions and nearly killing its leader, Abdulqadir Mumin, the group has launched several attacks on security forces and business centers. IS has also clashed with al-Shabaab for control of strategic mountain ranges in Puntland.
Despite limited activity in early 2024, IS has expanded its operations, seizing control of the Buuraha Cali Miskat mountain range in Bari region and increasing its influence in the port city of Bosaso and surrounding areas. The group has intensified its extortion of local businesses, leading to closures of significant establishments due to fear of targeted violence.
Inter-clan conflicts have escalated, especially in the Mudug and Galgaduud regions of Galmudug state. In Mudug, clashes between the Habar Gedir Saad sub-clan of the Hawiye clan and the Leelkayse sub-clan of the Darod clan over land ownership and water resources have resulted in over 70 fatalities in late June. Similarly, in Galgaduud, hostilities between the Marehan sub-clan of the Darod clan and the Sure sub-clan of the Dir clan led to over 50 deaths in early June.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Galmudug state officials have accused al-Shabaab and certain political figures of exacerbating these clan conflicts to disrupt government operations and gain political leverage.
Somali security forces, alongside Jubaland security and Danab special forces, have launched significant counter-insurgency operations against al-Shabaab in Lower Juba. These operations aim to clear IEDs and secure areas from Afmadow to Jamaame town. On July 10, security forces took control of several villages south of Afmadow after intense clashes with al-Shabaab, resulting in numerous fatalities.
The ongoing military interventions have significantly pressured al-Shabaab, hindering their operational capabilities and disrupting their stronghold in the region.
Key Developments and Events
- Political Events
- June 3: Jubaland state parliament extends the president's term of office from four to five years.
- July 10: Jubaland's president meets with a U.S. military official to discuss the campaign against al-Shabaab.
- July 17: Government delegates arrive in Galgaduud region to negotiate with clan militias who looted trucks carrying weapons.
- July 21: Members of parliament request that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud resign from office.
- July 23: Local council elections are held in the Nugaal region of Puntland.
- Violent Events
- June 8: Inter-clan fighting between the Marehan and Dir in Galgaduud results in over 50 reported fatalities.
- July 10: Inter-clan clashes in Mudug claim at least 70 reported fatalities.
- July 10: Al-Shabaab and security forces clash in Lower Juba after militants ambush a convoy in Gacan Maroodi.
- July 14: Al-Shabaab detonates a car bomb at a hotel in Mogadishu, killing nine people.
- July 22: Security forces clash with al-Shabaab in Lower Juba, resulting in over 150 reported fatalities.
- July 24: Al-Shabaab ambushes a military convoy in Middle Shabelle, killing 13 soldiers.
