Ethiopia PM Meles Zenawi (pictured) has, in the past two decades, perfected a delicate balancing act of keeping himself relevant while remaining extremely useful to Western powers... despite pockets of turbulence along the way
By ARGAW ASHINE IN ADDIS ABABA
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Since February, elements of the Ethiopian opposition based mainly abroad have been drumming up a campaign dubbed Beka! (Enough!), which aims to remove Prime Minister Meles Zenawi through an Arab-style popular uprising.
Calling itself the Ethiopian Youth Movement, the group had set May 28 as the “day of rage” against what it said was Zenawi’s authoritarian regime.
The day was chosen to coincide with the 20th anniversary celebrations of Ethiopia’s ruling party.
In online networks and all through the blogosphere, thousands of Ethiopians had subscribed to the cause, giving rise to feeble hopes of a rare challenge to Zenawi’s hold on the Horn of Africa country.
Instead, tens of thousands turned out to fervently mark the ruling Ethiopian People’s Democratic Front’s (EPRDF) brief but colourful party. At Meskel Square in the capital Addis Ababa,throngs chanted praises of Zenawi in a solid show of support.
It is estimated that the EPRDF has five million members. However, the Zenawiadministration remains far from upholding democratic values and has been repeatedly criticised for its poor human rights and media freedom record.
Despite this, the opposition remains a mere shell. Zenawi’s party holds an absolute 99.6 per cent majority in parliament after last year’s elections.
The date, May 28, also marked the 20th anniversary of the fall of Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam’s brutal regime, which brought Zenawi and his guerilla group to power after a 17-year bitter struggle. And Zenawi looks a strong bet to enhance his grip on power.
In the past two decades, he has perfected a delicate balancing act of keeping himself relevant, while remaining extremely useful to Western powers.
His military victories against Eritrea and Somali Islamists helped buff up the importance of his leadership in a fragile region. But there have been pockets of turbulence along the way.
The year 2005 was the most challenging for Zenawi’s administration after opposition politicians won a landslide election victory in all major towns,including the capital.The incumbent responded harshly,with the resulting post-election violence leaving some 200 dead.
A slew of oppositionleaders also ended up in prison. It has since looked impossible to challenge Zenawi’s rule through the ballot, leading some opposed to him to declare an armed struggle against him.
The returns have been scant, with some veteran opposition politicians such as Birtukan Midekesa and Siye Abreham opting to retire and go abroad for further studies.
The EPRDF officially declares in its party document that a dominant one-party rule would help Ethiopia out of biting poverty.
Zenawi calls his rule “developmental state”, far from the traditionally accepted capitalist ideology and liberal administration— which the premier terms a “dead end”.
With this cocktail prescription, Zenawi has succeeded in providing better infrastructure such as roads, telecoms, power, and urban housing.
The IMF, World Bank, and other multilateral organisations have lavished praise on the Ethiopian economy and it is now one of the fastest growing in sub-Saharan Africa, expanding at an average of eight per cent in the past seven years.
But inflation remains a challenge, measured at 29 per cent in April 2011.
This February, Zenawi was forced to intervene, placing a price cap on 18 different food items, including sugar, oil, and meat.
However, this has resulted in the disappearance of some of these items from the market altogether, leading to an expensive but thriving black market Since May this year, the government has become the sole importer and distributor of wheat, oil, and sugar, a throwback to the Marxist regime days of Col Mengistu in the 1980s.
Zenawi denied that the price controls were meant to contain an Arab-style revolt by the people.
Other factors also suggest that he may be around for quite some time. His articulate thoughts on economies and Ethiopia’s military capability have helped Zenawi become a spokesperson for the continent, as well as for developing nations in various international forums.
He co-chaired the UN’s Climate Change panel and leads Africa on climate negotiations,articulating the region’s concerns at G8 and G20 gatherings.
According to local party supporters and international admirers, Zenawi is unconventionally “brilliant”.
And despite deteriorating governance at home, Ethiopia’s development aid has been steadily growing. Following the Arab uprising, Ethiopia,sub-Saharan Africa’s second most populous country, has been in a tailspin schedule over its grand plan to erect a Sh45 billion hydro dam on the Nile River.
The decision sparked excitement and support towards the administration, with Ethiopians keen on contributing to building the dam without any foreign aid.
Egypt, for whom the Nile waters are an economic lifeline, desperately sent delegations to Addis Ababa to plead with the Ethiopian leader to ensure that the 5,250 megawatt dam did not harm her share of the water.
Zenawi has managed to tap this into a diplomatic victory and is now politically being portrayed as the most patriotic leader Ethiopia has ever had.
His image is now even appearing on the walls of individual homes and offices, as well as on big billboards in major streets.
The government’s five-year growth plan aims to transform Ethiopia into a middle income country by increasing productivity and generating internal wealth.
Zenawi has also set a target to end foreign food aid within the next four years, with nearly three million people in danger of
starvation this year.
Despite the campaign by the Ethiopian Youth Movement — including thousands of pamphlets to educational institutions — it looks increasing likely that Zenawi will be in power a lot longer.
For now, the mysterious group remains only on Facebook and Twitter, at odds with the situation on the ground.
Source: Daily Nation