Watch the whole the Video

Read Transcript

REPORTER: Thom Cookes

These African diplomats are travelling to a country that has had no government for the last 14 years. They're flying to Jowhar, the small town that has become Somalia's temporary capital, and they're planning to open a new embassy for the African Union.

It's a leap of faith in a country that has virtually ceased to exist. Many have tried to restore order in Somalia after 14 years of civil war, and together with SBS Radio journalist Issa Farah, who grew up here, I've come to assess the chances of the latest attempt.

But as we make our final approach, the omens are not good. One of the delegation is studying a map of the landmines spread throughout the country.
And despite being part of an official delegation, Issa and I are passed a note warning that the local warlord will expect a $50-per-head pay-off for the use of his airstrip.

Waiting for us are the Somali officials who are supposed to guide the country back to peace. This is a big moment for them. Their Transitional Federal Government was set up last year, after a tortuous 2-year process that brought together dozens of warring clans.

But since then it's been largely ignored by the international community. Today the Somalis are keen to show off their progress. But as we arrive in Jowhar, the first person who approaches us is a local journalist who has just experienced media management, Somali-style. Siddi Hassan had been kidnapped at gunpoint by a Mogadishu warlord who was angry about the coverage he was getting.

SIDDI HASSAN, JOURNALIST (Translation): I interviewed him yesterday so I didn't see him as a threat. As we walked to the car, he pointed the gun at me then he told me to get in. He complained that I'd cut the interview. Then he took my camera and other equipment.

The Transitional Federal Government, or TFG, has set up in this small, dusty town because the president himself doesn't feel safe in Mogadishu, just 90km down the road. Even here, he exerts little authority, and is actually the guest of the local warlord.

In Somalia there are no border controls, no national army or police, no banks and the only laws come out the barrel of a gun. The Somali President, Abdullahi Yusuf, has invited us to film him welcoming the African Union diplomats. Any recognition of his government here is critical and helps to firm up his shaky grip on power.

ABDULLAHI YUSUF, SOMALI PRESIDENT: The problem is that the international community is not supporting (us) up till now. Later on, when they will see this African Union flag here, what they will do I don't know.

AFRICAN DIPLOMAT: I think they will come following, sir I think it is a bit too soon, they always have issues with African countries, but when they see you making a bold step in the right direction, they have no choice but to follow.

Abdullahi Yusuf was always going to be a controversial choice to lead Somalia back to peace. He was one of the most ambitious warlords during the civil war, which erupted when dictator Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991.

Soon after UN and American troops intervened, but were forced into a humiliating retreat from the country. Since then, Somalia has been left to decline into anarchy and lawlessness, largely forgotten by the rest of the world.

President Yusuf participated in this systematic destruction and his opponents ask how he can possibly unite the country.

MOHAMMED YASSIN: The foundation, which the Transitional Federal Government is built on, was wrong, in actual fact. People who were supposed to be behind bars, people who should languish in jail for the atrocities they have committed, now they are calling themselves the leaders.

Mohammed Yassin ran for election as President against Yusuf - and lost. He wasn't a player in the civil war and believes that picking any of the former warlords as president is a recipe for disaster.
 
MOHAMMED YASSIN: It's impossible. It's impossible Criminals who were fighting, a mafia group who was fighting each other, if you tell them come together and now be friends, get into that room. If I put it another way, like hijackers from different groups, who are fighting for booty, and they hijack the plane, and you bring them together, the warring hijackers, bring them together in one plane, with their passengers, the victims, and now you tell them who is going to be the captain of the plane? It's not just the president's political enemies who are pessimistic.

Most independent observers believe that the Transitional Federal Government, or TFG, is foundering.

REPORTER: What sort of chance do you give the current TFI, or TFG as it's referred to, what sort of chance do you give it for success?

MATT BRYDEN, INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP: I couldn't put a percentage on it, but I'd say that it is declining every day. Matt Bryden is a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, and has been watching Somali politics closely for the last 15 years.

MATT BRYDEN: There was a tremendous opportunity last year, when the government was formed, it was an imperfect agreement and imperfect government, but it was probably the best we've had in many years, and there was a great deal of hope throughout Somalia that this time it would work.

Unfortunately, since that moment, the government has been unable to get to work. In Jowhar, there's little evidence of government activity. This is the Federal Education Ministry, serving a population estimated at more than 9 million people.

The 2-room office was locked and empty when we visited. Many of its buildings are in ruins but the local school is still functioning. Issa explained to the children here that they are among the lucky ones.

ISSA FARAH, (Translation): We've driven through different parts of Somalia and this is the only town where people are united. It's different from other towns. You have peace here. Peace.

After more than a decade of civil war, Somalia also has thousands of orphans and private charities, many funded from the Middle East, have opened up here to care for them. But one of the most prominent, al-Haramayn, was forced to close after the US accused it of having links to terrorism. The closure has deeply angered both Somalis and other foreign donors.

DR GHANIM ALNAJJAR, UN SOMALI HUMAN RIGHTS ADVISOR: My point was with the United States that if you want to do that, and if it is acceptable this is a political issue, fine, but can you have an alternative, because those 4,000 or 5,000 young people, they are future terrorists if you just close these charity organisations and let them go on the street.

So you have to find an alternative, you don't just say "I close them and to hell with it". The lawlessness of Somalia has attracted an al-Qa'ida presence. Their numbers, and the threat they pose, are hotly disputed. But the United States has taken advantage of the anarchy here to abduct, and sometimes even assassinate, those it suspects of terrorism.

Dr Ghanim Alnajjar is the United Nations independent expert on Somali human rights. He told journalists in Nairobi that fears about Somalia exporting terrorism seem to outweigh concern over the plight of its people.

DR GHANIM ALNAJJAR: The world is looking at Somalia as a security problem and if that is the case then we are not going to go anywhere. And this is the worst part, they are looking at Somalia as a security problem, so let's keep it safe to others and then whatever happens inside is just not our concern.

Somalis also have a great capacity for self-destruction, and Issa and I are taken to see a graphic example on the edge of town. This sugar processing factory was built by the Italians before independence in 1960. It used to employ thousands and was one of the biggest industries in the country. But during the civil war, all public assets were fair game.

LOCAL OFFICAL (Translation): Business people dismantled the factory and sold it overseas for scrap. Yes, and they sold it overseas. I can't mention their names but they still live here.

Yes. ISSA: This is an example of what people can do with their own - obviously they blew it up. Later in the day, President Yusuf presides over the opening ceremony for the new African Union office in Jowhar. For a President who exercises virtually no power over a country that barely exists, recognition like this is priceless.

ABDIKAREN, AFRICAN UNION AMBASSADOR: Now, the African Union Commission they are taking the decision by themselves, they are becoming very, very strong organisation, and that's why when they bring their flag here in Somalia, they did not ask nobody.

They took the decision by themselves, and now they are willing to stand by Somali people, with the Somali Government, and I would like you to welcome them in the bottom of your hearts.

ABDULLAHI YUSUF: Thank you. During the proceedings, the President makes a startling admission.

ABDULLAHI YUSUF (Translation): Something I'll remind you of, it's no secret. I'll remind you. Mr Chairman, chairperson I should say, and delegates. That I... some people here might think I'm young. I'm one of the people who destroyed Somalia. I was the first man. At that time I thought I should fight against the existing government.

But now we realise we went too far. Now we need the men who started the collapse. They're the ones who should initiate peace and rebuild the nation and its values. For now, some sort of order does seem to have returned to Jowhar. But as we are soon to discover it's only temporary.

The peace here has been imposed through the presence of a large armed force the President has been assembling. These troops are from his power-base in the north of the country. And there have been accusations he has been receiving military aid from neighbouring Ethiopia.

We've also heard that on the edge of town, the President's been gathering hundreds of heavier weapons like these. He claims they are required to restore order, but their mere presence could be responsible for tipping Somalia back into open warfare.

SHEIK SHARIF HASSAN, (Translation): This issue is ongoing, the President is moving troops from Puntland to Ethiopia, and he's still gathering troops in that area. Certainly there could be a war. The transitional Somali Government is split down the middle.

Half the cabinet is based in Mogadishu, and refuses to join the President in Jowhar. Sheik Sharif Hassan leads the opposition faction in Mogadishu, he and his colleagues are worried that the President is getting ready to wage war on them.

SHEIK SHARIF HASSAN, (Translation): My view, based on 14 years of experience of Somali people, and the way I view the Somali people, I believe nothing will be achieved by war. No clan or group will defeat another. People should know that.

Technically, Somalia has been under a complete United Nations arms embargo since 1992, but this has been ignored by just about everybody, including the President. By assembling his force, Yusuf has triggered off a national arms race.
 
MATT BRYDEN: In recent months, unfortunately since the government was formed, reports we have received are of sharp increases in demand for arms and ammunition, particularly around Mogadishu, in the anticipation of a confrontation, and I think that is a clear indication that this government is in trouble, and that there is a real risk of serious violence if a political solution can't be found.

According to the International Crisis Group's Matt Bryden, President Yusuf appears to be more interested in shoring up his own position than defusing the current tension.

MATT BRYDEN: The mobilisation and equipping of this force represents a violation both of the embargo, and what the UN Security Council has asked for. The UN has called on all parties not take military action and that includes mobilising and training their forces in this way.

REPORTER: So, technically, what Yusuf is doing now is breaching the embargo?

MATT BRYDEN: Yes, and he has admitted to that, he has admitted that he is receiving equipment and material for his forces, and has been unapologetic about that. After some negotiation, the President has granted us an interview, and I'm able to put some of this directly to him.

REPORTER: I have been told by some Somali MPs that they are nervous about the force you are assembling, the government force, and they wonder what the purpose of that force is. Can you tell me why you are assembling a force, and should they be nervous about that?
 
ABDULLAHI YUSUF (Translation): The military is made up of armed militia groups. We're recruiting them, reforming their culture, taking over their arms, making them into a national army with no hidden agenda or plans to attack anyone.

REPORTER: Why is this government different, why is the TFG different, why will you be able to do what no one has been able to do for 14 years?

ABDULLAHI YUSUF (Translation): This government is different from the previous one. The previous governments that were formed and failed were not established or approved by everyone. The constitution and laws were not agreed to by everyone. The majority and minority peoples, the clans, communities, civil society, factions, politicians, none of them participated. But everyone did with this one. And those who do not accept this government won't agree to anything and they don't want peace.
 
REPORTER: Are you concerned about divisions in the government, we have heard many people talk about two camps - one camp in Mogadishu, one camp in Jowhar - are you worried or concerned about division or split in the government?

ABDULLAHI YUSUF (Translation): You might find it odd that a small number of troops has been in Mogadishu for four or five months now but could do nothing and were unsuccessful. I don't see any reason why they should stay there if they're not doing anything. They should stop wasting time and join the government structure, the law forces and the parliament that are based here.
 
Later that night, we begin to realise that not all is as peaceful here as we are being told. After dinner in the presidential compound, we tune in to the local Somali radio and learn that tensions between the President and his rivals are beginning to rise.
 
Rumours are flying that troops belonging to both camps are on the move. RADIO (Translation): A group of soldiers loyal to the President are based at Puntland and Hiiraan. It has been reported the troops in Hiiraan have left their barracks and are now in Luq Jeelow barracks near Baladweyn.

Overnight, the fragile peace in Jowhar has evaporated. One of the President's more extreme rivals in Mogadishu has declared war on his administration here. Yesterday, the President was celebrating the opening of the African Union embassy.

But today, the United Nations has been forced to evacuate all its international staff from Jowhar, before they become caught up in the crossfire between the two government factions. Many of the UN staff are unhappy about the decision.

ROB, UN STAFF: Because of some tensions that have built up in the South here, they have now decided at UN headquarters that we should depart the office here and relocate to Nairobi.

REPORTER: So all of the international staff are leaving?

ROB: That's right we are all leaving in a few hours. A special plane is coming to pick us up in a couple of hours, and we will depart this office, hopefully to return soon. The President's compound is now locked down, and he is reportedly furious at the UN decision. Eventually we talk our way in, but his bodyguards have become extremely twitchy, worried that the militias could be coming down the road from Mogadishu at any time. The UN evacuation is a public relations disaster for Yusuf's government, and his ambassador to the African Union is keen to play it down.

ABDIKAREN: There is no war, and nothing is going to happen at all. And hopefully, after you watch this film, everybody can agree with that, and hopefully the international community, especially the UN, they will learn a lesson from this. And thought and plan the decisions they are making and is not always good just to pack up your baggage and go when you hear something and then come back again when nothing happens.

So, hopefully they will rethink when they come back to us here, hopefully, next time, they will stay with us more thoroughly. Thank you very much. But the advice from SBS's own security specialists is that we should also get out as fast as we can.

The African Union delegation has agreed to take us back to Kenya on its plane, which is already waiting on the desert strip.

PILOT: Gentleman, we are way, way too late. Within Somalia, there seem to be few people with a real interest in a return to peace. Outside Somalia, few people seem to care. Without a drastic change of approach, it is hard to see a functioning government on the horizon.

GEORGE NEGUS: Thom tells Dateline that a matter of hours after he left Jowhar, the local warlord took control of the UN compound where he and Issa were staying.

Source:SBS-Australia