By Arte Moalin lll

China, a State without a prescribed religion – which is certainly set to re-initiate the Former Soviet Union’s Cold War with the West, but with a much more dynamic and determination to it than the Soviet Union did --- and an emerging super power to be contended with, has its eyes set on Somalia, a three hours flight to the Western World’s most valuable sites in the Middle East Oil Fields. A silent threat to the Western World’s philosophy of Chains-and-Rules (or Boundaries and Protocols) on Africa, Middle East, and Asia, China has concluded, I am convinced, no country could be a better asset to China’s foreign policy on Africa than a permanent base in Somalia.

Its passive but gradual build-up of permanent partnership foreign policy has been perfected on, and is inherent in its encapsulation of the Asian continent through a gradual build-up of arms, education and workforce, as well as close association of kinship with the peoples of Asia, as was with the case of Hong Kong. It purposely populated the Hong Kong workforce with Mainland Chinese workers for a period of decades until it finally gave the British a very patient but enforced notice to depart, with clear declaration of consequences if not complied with to which the British government had no choice but to succumb to.

On Taiwan, China has and continues to apply the same patient but aggressive tactic. Just most recently, China declared it’s willing to use the most destructive weapon known to man to defend its sole right over Taiwan, if the United States trespasses. And on North Korea, one must ask, why does the North Korean government “trust” Beijing, while doing what I call the turtle-turns with its Nuclear Proliferation. Or rather, one must think about what a North Korea succumbed to US demands would mean for China.

If the North Koreans were to abandon their current position -- which of course is impossible because its arm forces and politicians are populated by Chinese and North Korean Chinese trained men, (the only North Korean ploy China would support being the ‘turtle-turns’ for the West), a South Korea like North would mount to political and empirical stagnation for Mainland China, which has its eyes set on breaking the current Japanese and South Korean roadblocks, befriended by the West through the United States government and Nato. And to accomplish such, China is employing two string solution: 1-Asian Identity Relations with Asian countries through the educated Asian populations as well as the Living memoirs of those who witnessed the Western Imperials in Asia; and 2- Global Partnership and Development with the Developing World.

On Asian Identity Relations: China, with its abundance of people, has vested much psychological dominance over the authorities of its neighboring countries, by playing to the psyche of the Asian population with its display of Authority and Might to the Western powers for the welfare of the Asian citizen. The fact that China carries its foreign policy towards the west the way it does is not accidental but a chessboard-based process, through which it has successfully, and with the abundant (or massive) Asian Media and Asian public support, mastered the denial and expulsion of the Western powers in Asia, as was done with the US in Vietnam, North Korea, and now Taiwan in the process while it has accomplished the same with Britain over Hong Kong, with nothing but remnants of Western presence in South Korea and Japan where the people, encouraged by the demands of the Chinese government over the Asian media outlets, continue to clearly express their dissatisfaction with the presence of Western troops.

In South Korea, it appears it is a matter of time before the public put in place a Democratic government that will implement its campaign rhetoric of better relations with the other Korea, which the public hope, as China is counting, will lead to a United Korea that is in-sink with the emergence of a powerful Asia that is sovereign from, and conscious of, Western economic and political dominance as well as Asian Identity. In fact, to China’s satisfaction, the South Korean public elected governments on the premise of improving relations with North Korea, with the underlying hope it will lead to a re-united Korea. I am convinced, with some evidence coming to emerge now, the South Korean public blame the western psychology for the continuation of the Korean Peninsula, in comparison to Germany’s reunification. To the educated South Korean citizen, East Germany which possessed all of the powers of the Soviet Union’s Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and Western Germany which had, at its disposal, Nato’s available power of WMDs could have reunited peacefully while the poor North Koreans, who are starving on daily bases, are seen as a living threat to the existence and survival of South Korea and the region, as explained by the Western governments and Media.

In fact, the South Korean people may even see North Korea’s possession of deadly arms as a future protection from other powers of the region, in the absence of a Nato force, which of course the South Korean people have been pushing for in the last few years, with students marching in demonstration of US Policy and Presence on the Peninsula, while China’s most recent threat that it would consider using the ultimate power to defend its sole right over Taiwan can only encourage the South Koreans of possession of arms to the scale of the North Koreans. And of course, the North Korean leader made it clear to refer to Saddam Hussein’s demise as due to his lack of Nuclear possession. He said, Saddam Hussein was wrong to have let in the UN Inspectors because, according to him, the US and British governments decided to invade on the knowledge that Saddam Hussein had no Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). This conviction of possession of WMDs being a deterrence to attack by the Western Powers isn’t just North Korean dictator’s conviction, but a Chinese prescribed philosophy, a fear that leads me to believe, China, with its massive hunger for natural resources, would not hesitate to place such destructive weapons in places like Somalia for protection of its influence over the African continent – the World’s Richest Continent in Natural Resources – for the purpose of ensuring a secure supply-line of natural resources for its own economic progress, in support of its massive scale of production for the World Market. As such, China in Somalia, would, if felt threatened by the West, target the Middle East Oil fields and the Democratic State of Israel, which has been -- to the surprise of many -- a line of defense for the Middle East Oil Fields (MEOF) against the Former Soviet Union and China during the First Cold War (FCW).

Global Partnership and Development with the Developing World: With the end of the first cold war, the winner --- basically the United States --- has lost sight of the price won: To develop the Third World through commercialization.  China, always wise and patient, has substituted for the United States and taken the necessary leadership to develop the Third World while the US has opted to be a broker of Chinese Industries. True, many Chinese production companies are partnered with US Companies but the question becomes: How long will Chinese Companies allow American Companies to be brokers sitting on Chinese shoulders? Business, being all about profit maximization, will, and with plenty of evidence to support now (talk to any American businessman who has been involved with the booming belly-blowing Chinese businessmen), lead to bitter divisions and competitive counterparts. China’s aggressive businessmen, in the Red Party Uniforms, have found in Somalia, located just few hours from the Western World’s most valuable assets (the MEOF), the first open-hole to ridding the American businessmen.

True, there is a large Western Military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, but China, always patient, is feeling pretty comfortable now that the US and British governments are, in fact, publicly discussing the possibility of a withdrawal timetable for their troops. And while the West is pre-occupied with the Insurgents in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan, China, always wise, is scouting all over Africa --- the World’s richest in natural resources – and developing the continent with its ever adaptable businessmen (and businesswoman) who are comfortable sleeping on mats and mattresses while their western counterparts demand Bed and Breakfast in the developed world, let alone Africa.

And with Somalia in its possession, or soon to be, unless the United States brings together the warring parties of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG), China, which is convinced it will face unavoidable Cold War with the West, pushed by 1) China’s encapsulation of Asia as the sole Super Power there, and 2) the dissatisfaction of the Muslim populations of the world with the Western Foreign Policy, will look into Africa for natural resources. As such, China has figured it needs to seat itself strategically in Africa for the battle to be fought with the West by foster-parenting the TFG of Somalia through its President and Prime Minister, along with the help of the Ethiopian government.  And to maximize and add to the size of China’s Great Wall of Defense for its new price (Africa), China, I am convinced, is determined to bring Asia to Africa through its influences in Ethiopia and Somalia, though the Ethiopian government has failed to realize China, a state without a prescribed religion, will, in the long run, massively aid the dominant religion of the region through its presence in Somalia --- a dominant Muslim State.

Aware of its long-term interest in the region, and in particular Somalia, located few hours from the MEOFs –- a future target to pose instability into the Western Markets --- China has, through its influences with the Ethiopian government, brokered a deal between Malaysia, a dominant Muslim country with a substantial affluent ethnic Chinese population, and the Ethiopian government over the Oil and Gas sites in Ethiopia’s Region 5 (‘Ogaden’), an Ethnic Somali populated province. China, always mindful of the People Psychology (I think China has not just discovered the gun powder but has also mastered Human Psychology), and not feeling threatened by the dominant religion of the region --- Islam --- or seen by the Muslims in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East as a threat in anyway, is certainly focused to undermine the governments of the Middle East through bond it hopes to build with the people rather than the governments, most of whom are families rather than representatives of the larger societies they dictate upon. In fact, China hopes to capitalize on the people’s dissatisfaction with the rulers’ alliance with the West and as such, undermine the ruling families through borderless commercialization driven from Somalia and mingling of the Regional psychology of the Arab and African Muslim populations.

And with Somalia in its possession, along with Somalia’s business-driven population --- today, Somali business entrepreneurs have taken the African continent as well as neighboring Middle Eastern countries by storm, and largely displaced the Arab and Indian business people that were abundant and influential in the African continent --- China will certainly, and without question, capitalize on this invaluable gateway, made up of people, land and position that is inseparably bonded with the people of the Middle East and Africa through race and religion.

Furthermore, China understands Somalia’s location, size, and ethnic and religious make-up is strategically placed for commercialization of the African continent. For instance, many in the west, and influenced by the French government, consider Djibouti to be a self standing state while China, absolutely convinced in the power of all-politics-being-local, believes, I am convinced, through commercialization of Somalia, it is inevitable Djibouti, almost insignificant in comparison to Somalia, will become dependant on Somalia, and in due time rejoin mainland Somalia, the undeniable future dominant force in East African Economics, even without the Chinese factor. China, I am convinced, has studied the current environment where mainland Somalia, even without a functioning government, has been disastrous to the business monopoly-protective regimes of the East African governments of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti, given the element of surprise being the Ethnic Somalis spread around the entire East Africa and aided by the discovery of free market economy by the government-lacking Somalis in mainland Somalia.

In fact, Ethiopia has unsuccessfully tried to stop the introduction of Free Market Economy in East Africa with the support of the so-called “Somaliland”, the breakaway Northern part of Somalia, which practices business monopoly by granting preferential import-and-export rights to government connected people, who have, to the demise of the ‘Republic’, sidelined the rest of the population, thus, making life in Somaliland unbearable for the average citizen to the point mainland Somalia became a necessity for survival. China, India, the US, and now the EU understand the power of a single large unit Market Share while the poor and uneducated Africans, as in Somaliland, think, separations is the way to riches. Alas! But, China, understanding the weight of a Single Market Share Unit is determined to destroy the Western erected borders along the East African region of Somalia, and reshape the region.

And while China is in pursuit of Somalia, along with Ethiopia’s support, the West, with the Italians ever indecisive and incapable of vision or values, have scouted the Chinese vision of the region, and in response, the West, most heavily influenced by the Permanent Super Power, is very active setting all the roadblocks for the TFG of Somalia to make any immediate headway, of course the other side of the coin being the West believes the TFG President’s early lapses of judgment --- few days into his election, he rushed to the African Union in Addis Ababa, asked for 20,000 arm force, sidelined the constitution and selected a Prime Minister whom he immediately asked to form a government, and who also himself suffered a lapse of judgment since he agreed with the President and did form a government even when he, himself, lacked legal mandate to do so according the TFG constitution --- is a reason for concern and, unless the TFG President is forced to, as was done repeatedly since his election, he won’t abide by the will of the International Community which desires to see a save and democratic government in mainland Somalia. It is common with Somali politicians, and in their early years of Presidency, to make grave political misjudgments.

For instance, it was the President of the Transitional National Government of Somalia, in fact about one of Somalia’s top two political masterpieces, who, in his appearance before the Arab League Heads of States, blustered, ‘Oh, let us each contribute 10 or 20,000 soldiers, and do way with Israel’ as if that was a noble cause or a task achievable. His lapse of judgment was in his lack of knowledge that Israel is forever untouchable because it simply has the brightest and best equipped military nor would the West, heavily Christian, wait, with permission slip in its hands, while the Muslim World belittled the Jewish State. In fact, it appears now, the Muslim world is realizing the undeniable future of Normal relations with the Jewish State, a fact the heavens waited for a good long time, I think, since Islam has always demanded protection for people, regardless of race or religious affiliations and a reminder to the believers that, the people of the land would come back to reside alongside the Muslim populations. And it was in this lapse of judgment that defined Former President Abdiqasim’s lack of acceptance in the Western World.  He appeared to many in the West as ‘a little Hitler’ in the making. Similarly, the Western world’s lack of acceptance of President Abdullahi’s TFG may well be with his lack of enthusiasm for peace and democratic values, as seen by the West.

I am convinced, however, that Somalia, with its TFG divided between China and the West, marks the beginning of the Second Cold War. And unless Ethiopia’s foreign policy analysts reconsider their position with Somalia, in regards to China, and the heads of the TFG give way to permanent or long-term U.S. military base in Somalia, the United States will not negotiate on its interest of the Middle East Oil Fields (MEOFs) nor would it permit a Chinese military presence in Somalia. The challenge to masterfully resolve the Somalia TFG’s division rests on the shoulders of the IGAD States and the President, Prime Minister, and Speaker of the TFG.

I am convinced the best scenario would be a two part sum solution: 1- to provide a military base for the US government, in exchange for building Institutions in Somalia for the purpose of giving support to the establishment of free market economies and democratic governing of the African continent, while safeguarding its interest in the Middle East and the African continent against terrorism; and 2- allow China to competitively build-up the infrastructure of the continent through its massive, yet, educated and efficient workforce for the cheapest possible.

Arte Moalin III
E-mail: [email protected]